Football · Mexico Liga MX · 02/11, 02:00

Prediction: Cruz Azul vs Leon

Team pages: Cruz Azul · Leon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Cruz Azul2.01

Leon1.1

1X2

58% 23% 19%

Cruz Azul Draw Leon

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Cruz Azul 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWLDDWWW

Leon 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWDWDLWD

Head-to-head

Cruz Azul 4–2 Leon (6 last)

Leon2-1Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul4-1Leon
Leon2-1Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul2-1Leon
Leon2-3Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul2-1Leon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cruz Azul 1534 · Leon 1528

	Cruz Azul	Draw	Leon
Our model	57%	23%	19%
Market	58%	23%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cruz Azul: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cruz Azul	Leon
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.5	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6	1.3 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.10

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.61▼	Pinn 1.67
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.26 ★
2	4.50 → 4.75▲	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +2’	1.65	4.10	4.50
17:35 +6’	1.61▼	4.10	4.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:15 +11’	1.67	4.26	4.56

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cruz Azul 4–0–2 Leon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/01/26 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	2-1 HT 1-0	Cruz Azul
27/07/25 Mexico Liga MX	Cruz Azul	4-1 HT 0-0	Leon
21/06/25 America Friendlies	Leon	2-1 HT 0-0	Cruz Azul
12/05/25 Mexico Liga MX	Cruz Azul	2-1 HT 1-1	Leon
09/05/25 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	2-3 HT 1-3	Cruz Azul
16/04/25 Mexico Liga MX	Cruz Azul	2-1 HT 0-0	Leon

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	13	8	3	2	33	18	27
2	Cruz Azul	14	8	2	4	32	23	26
3	Chivas Guadalajara	14	7	5	2	21	12	26
4	Atlas	14	7	3	4	25	26	24
5	Toluca	14	6	5	3	29	19	23
6	Leon	14	6	4	4	21	18	22
7	Monterrey	13	6	2	5	23	18	20
8	Tijuana	13	5	5	3	21	17	20
9	Queretaro	13	6	2	5	17	18	20
10	Santos Laguna	14	6	1	7	20	20	19
11	Atletico San Luis	14	5	4	5	19	22	19
12	Unam Pumas	14	4	5	5	20	23	17
13	Pachuca	14	4	4	6	22	19	16
14	Puebla	14	4	4	6	16	21	16
15	Tigres UANL	14	3	6	5	15	19	15
16	Atlante	14	3	5	6	14	20	14
17	Necaxa	14	2	4	8	16	27	10
18	Juarez FC	14	1	2	11	9	33	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cruz Azul	Leon
Queretaro	3-1 W	1-1 D
Juarez FC	5-0 W	2-1 W
Unam Pumas	3-3 D	1-3 L
Toluca	3-3 D	1-1 D
Monterrey	0-1 L	2-0 W
Club America	4-3 W	3-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cruz Azul (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cruz Azul

LWWWLDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	3-1	3-1	6	2	W
22/10	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	8	8	W
18/10	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	3-0	5-0	2	5	W
12/10	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-2	3-3	6	3	D
27/09	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	2-0	3-3	4	5	D
20/09	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
13/09	Club America Mexico Liga MX	3-0	4-3	6	7	W
07/09	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
29/08	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-1	7	7	W
23/08	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-2	9	1	L

Leon

WDLWDWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
21/10	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
18/10	Club America Mexico Liga MX	0-2	3-5	7	8	L
10/10	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
28/09	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-1	1	4	W
21/09	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	1	7	D
15/09	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
11/09	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-3	2	3	L
29/08	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
22/08	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cruz Azul vs Leon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cruz Azul win (58%). Probabilities: Cruz Azul 58%, draw 23%, Leon 19%.

How many goals are expected in Cruz Azul vs Leon?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Cruz Azul 2.01 · Leon 1.1), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cruz Azul vs Leon?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.