Football · Mexico Liga MX · 01/11, 00:00

Prediction: Pachuca vs Tigres UANL

Team pages: Pachuca · Tigres UANL

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Pachuca1.4

Tigres UANL1.16

1X2

42% 28% 31%

Pachuca Draw Tigres UANL

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Pachuca 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWWDLDLLW

Tigres UANL 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDLWWDLD

Head-to-head

Pachuca 2–1–3 Tigres UANL (6 last)

Tigres UANL1-2Pachuca
Pachuca1-2Tigres UANL
Pachuca0-0Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL2-1Pachuca
Tigres UANL1-0Pachuca
Tigres UANL0-3Pachuca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pachuca 1517 · Tigres UANL 1492

	Pachuca	Draw	Tigres UANL
Our model	41%	29%	30%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tigres UANL: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pachuca	Tigres UANL
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	0.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.2	2.9 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.20▼	Pinn 2.26
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.80 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.13 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
18:19 +5’	2.30	3.50	2.80
00:13 +2’	2.20▼	3.50	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:02 +23’	2.25	3.49	3.12
00:01 +25’	2.26▲	3.50▲	3.13▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Pachuca 2–1–3 Tigres UANL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Mexico Liga MX	Tigres UANL	1-2 HT 1-0	Pachuca
23/10/25 Mexico Liga MX	Pachuca	1-2 HT 0-0	Tigres UANL
16/04/25 Mexico Liga MX	Pachuca	0-0 HT 0-0	Tigres UANL
27/10/24 Mexico Liga MX	Tigres UANL	2-1 HT 1-1	Pachuca
09/08/24 Leagues Cup	Tigres UANL	1-0 HT 0-0	Pachuca
07/04/24 Mexico Liga MX	Tigres UANL	0-3 HT 0-0	Pachuca

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	13	8	3	2	33	18	27
2	Cruz Azul	14	8	2	4	32	23	26
3	Chivas Guadalajara	14	7	5	2	21	12	26
4	Atlas	14	7	3	4	25	26	24
5	Toluca	14	6	5	3	29	19	23
6	Leon	14	6	4	4	21	18	22
7	Monterrey	13	6	2	5	23	18	20
8	Tijuana	13	5	5	3	21	17	20
9	Queretaro	13	6	2	5	17	18	20
10	Santos Laguna	14	6	1	7	20	20	19
11	Atletico San Luis	14	5	4	5	19	22	19
12	Unam Pumas	14	4	5	5	20	23	17
13	Pachuca	14	4	4	6	22	19	16
14	Puebla	14	4	4	6	16	21	16
15	Tigres UANL	14	3	6	5	15	19	15
16	Atlante	14	3	5	6	14	20	14
17	Necaxa	14	2	4	8	16	27	10
18	Juarez FC	14	1	2	11	9	33	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pachuca	Tigres UANL
Monterrey	1-2 L	0-0 D
Necaxa	3-3 D	1-1 D
Santos Laguna	0-1 L	0-0 D
Atlante	3-0 W	2-0 W
Juarez FC	2-0 W	0-2 L
Chivas Guadalajara	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 4 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pachuca

DDWWDLDLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Club America Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
22/10	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	0	8	L
19/10	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	0-2	1-2	8	7	L
12/10	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-2	3-3	5	8	D
27/09	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
21/09	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-2	2-2	10	3	D
12/09	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	3-0	3-0	5	6	W
05/09	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	3	10	W
30/08	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
24/08	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	4	3	D

Tigres UANL

WDDDLWWDLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
21/10	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	16	1	L
18/10	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
10/10	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	2-1	3-2	5	5	W
27/09	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
19/09	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-2	9	2	L
13/09	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	0	6	D
06/09	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
30/08	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
22/08	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	5	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pachuca vs Tigres UANL?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pachuca win (42%). Probabilities: Pachuca 42%, draw 28%, Tigres UANL 31%.

How many goals are expected in Pachuca vs Tigres UANL?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Pachuca 1.4 · Tigres UANL 1.16), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Pachuca vs Tigres UANL?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.