Football · Mexico Liga MX · 01/11, 02:07

Prediction: Chivas Guadalajara vs Atlante

Team pages: Chivas Guadalajara · Atlante

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Chivas Guadalajara1.97

Atlante0.88

1X2

63% 22% 16%

Chivas Guadalajara Draw Atlante

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Chivas Guadalajara 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWDLDDWW

Atlante 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDDLDWLLWL

Head-to-head

Chivas Guadalajara 1–2–0 Atlante (3 last)

Chivas Guadalajara1-1Atlante
Atlante1-3Chivas Guadalajara
Chivas Guadalajara1-1Atlante

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chivas Guadalajara 1562 · Atlante 1459

	Chivas Guadalajara	Draw	Atlante
Our model	62%	23%	15%
Market	63%	21%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chivas Guadalajara (rating 1562 vs 1459).
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chivas Guadalajara	Atlante
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.9	0.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.2	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.7	1.9 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.4	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.50

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.02

2 (+1.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.48▲	Bet365 1.48
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.70
2	6.25 → 5.75▼	Pinn 6.14 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:19 +6’	1.44	4.50	6.25
17:18 +5’	1.48▲	4.50	5.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:08 +16’	1.47	4.69	6.11
01:12 +12’	1.47▼	4.70▲	6.14▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chivas Guadalajara 1–2–0 Atlante

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/11/17 Mexico Cup	Chivas Guadalajara	1-1 HT 0-0	Atlante
22/02/17 Mexico Cup	Atlante	1-3 HT 1-0	Chivas Guadalajara
25/01/17 Mexico Cup	Chivas Guadalajara	1-1 HT 0-0	Atlante

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	13	8	3	2	33	18	27
2	Cruz Azul	14	8	2	4	32	23	26
3	Chivas Guadalajara	14	7	5	2	21	12	26
4	Atlas	14	7	3	4	25	26	24
5	Toluca	14	6	5	3	29	19	23
6	Leon	14	6	4	4	21	18	22
7	Monterrey	13	6	2	5	23	18	20
8	Tijuana	13	5	5	3	21	17	20
9	Queretaro	13	6	2	5	17	18	20
10	Santos Laguna	14	6	1	7	20	20	19
11	Atletico San Luis	14	5	4	5	19	22	19
12	Unam Pumas	14	4	5	5	20	23	17
13	Pachuca	14	4	4	6	22	19	16
14	Puebla	14	4	4	6	16	21	16
15	Tigres UANL	14	3	6	5	15	19	15
16	Atlante	14	3	5	6	14	20	14
17	Necaxa	14	2	4	8	16	27	10
18	Juarez FC	14	1	2	11	9	33	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chivas Guadalajara	Atlante
Monterrey	1-0 W	4-2 W
Tigres UANL	1-1 D	0-2 L
Atlas	1-1 D	1-1 D
Queretaro	0-2 L	0-2 L
Unam Pumas	3-0 W	1-2 L
Atletico San Luis	3-0 W	0-1 L
Pachuca	1-1 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Chivas Guadalajara (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chivas Guadalajara

WDWWDLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
21/10	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	9	1	W
18/10	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
11/10	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	7	8	D
27/09	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	13	3	L
20/09	Club America Mexico Liga MX	2-0	2-2	6	4	D
14/09	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
06/09	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	2-0	3-0	2	1	W
30/08	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	7	4	D
23/08	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	3-0	5-2	4	4	W

Atlante

LDDLDWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
21/10	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
17/10	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	10	3	L
11/10	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
26/09	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	1-1	4-2	2	3	W
19/09	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	11	1	D
12/09	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	0-3	0-3	5	6	L
06/09	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	1	5	D
29/08	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
22/08	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-2	1	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chivas Guadalajara vs Atlante?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chivas Guadalajara win (63%). Probabilities: Chivas Guadalajara 63%, draw 22%, Atlante 16%.

How many goals are expected in Chivas Guadalajara vs Atlante?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Chivas Guadalajara 1.97 · Atlante 0.88), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Chivas Guadalajara vs Atlante?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.