Football · Mexico Liga MX · 02/11, 00:00

Prediction: Santos Laguna vs Necaxa

Team pages: Santos Laguna · Necaxa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

Santos Laguna2.03

Necaxa1.32

1X2

53% 23% 24%

Santos Laguna Draw Necaxa

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Santos Laguna 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWWWWWWL

Necaxa 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

DLDLLLDLLD

Head-to-head

Santos Laguna 1–5 Necaxa (6 last)

Santos Laguna1-3Necaxa
Necaxa4-1Santos Laguna
Necaxa3-2Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna3-2Necaxa
Necaxa2-0Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna2-5Necaxa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santos Laguna 1524 · Necaxa 1440

	Santos Laguna	Draw	Necaxa
Our model	53%	23%	24%
Market	53%	23%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santos Laguna (rating 1524 vs 1440).
H2H favours Necaxa: 5-0-1.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santos Laguna	Necaxa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 7.1	1.7 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.4	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.75

X4.00

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.75▲	Pinn 1.89 ★
X	4.10 → 4.00▼	Pinn 4.06
2	4.20 → 3.90▼	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:00 +32’	1.70	4.10	4.20
06:17 +1’	1.75▲	4.00▼	3.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:13 +2’	1.88	4.01	3.56
05:14 +6’	1.89▲	4.06▲	3.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santos Laguna 1–0–5 Necaxa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/01/26 Mexico Liga MX	Santos Laguna	1-3 HT 1-2	Necaxa
01/11/25 Mexico Liga MX	Necaxa	4-1 HT 3-1	Santos Laguna
08/02/25 Mexico Liga MX	Necaxa	3-2 HT 2-2	Santos Laguna
02/09/24 Mexico Liga MX	Santos Laguna	3-2 HT 0-1	Necaxa
13/04/24 Mexico Liga MX	Necaxa	2-0 HT 1-0	Santos Laguna
25/09/23 Mexico Liga MX	Santos Laguna	2-5 HT 0-1	Necaxa

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	13	8	3	2	33	18	27
2	Cruz Azul	14	8	2	4	32	23	26
3	Chivas Guadalajara	14	7	5	2	21	12	26
4	Atlas	14	7	3	4	25	26	24
5	Toluca	14	6	5	3	29	19	23
6	Leon	14	6	4	4	21	18	22
7	Monterrey	13	6	2	5	23	18	20
8	Tijuana	13	5	5	3	21	17	20
9	Queretaro	13	6	2	5	17	18	20
10	Santos Laguna	14	6	1	7	20	20	19
11	Atletico San Luis	14	5	4	5	19	22	19
12	Unam Pumas	14	4	5	5	20	23	17
13	Pachuca	14	4	4	6	22	19	16
14	Puebla	14	4	4	6	16	21	16
15	Tigres UANL	14	3	6	5	15	19	15
16	Atlante	14	3	5	6	14	20	14
17	Necaxa	14	2	4	8	16	27	10
18	Juarez FC	14	1	2	11	9	33	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santos Laguna	Necaxa
Unam Pumas	2-0 W	1-1 D
Atletico San Luis	2-1 W	1-3 L
Pachuca	1-0 W	3-3 D
Juarez FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Cruz Azul	0-1 L	1-3 L
Tigres UANL	0-0 D	1-1 D
Puebla	2-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Santos Laguna (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santos Laguna

LDLWWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-2	1-4	4	6	L
22/10	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
18/10	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	2-0	5-0	3	2	W
12/10	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	3	1	W
27/09	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	10	5	W
21/09	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	1-2	3-2	7	3	W
14/09	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-1	12	8	W
07/09	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
30/08	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	12	6	D
23/08	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-3	7	1	L

Necaxa

DLDLLLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
21/10	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
17/10	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	10	2	L
12/10	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	2-1	3-3	3	8	D
28/09	Club America Mexico Liga MX	2-2	2-4	3	5	L
20/09	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-3	5	2	L
12/09	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	8	4	L
06/09	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
29/08	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-3	7	7	L
24/08	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santos Laguna vs Necaxa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Santos Laguna win (53%). Probabilities: Santos Laguna 53%, draw 23%, Necaxa 24%.

How many goals are expected in Santos Laguna vs Necaxa?

The model expects 3.34 goals (Santos Laguna 2.03 · Necaxa 1.32), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Santos Laguna vs Necaxa?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.