Football · Colombia Primera A · 24/10, 23:05

Prediction: Alianza vs Internacional de Bogota

Team pages: Alianza · Internacional de Bogota

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Alianza1.46

Internacional de Bogota1.2

1X2

42% 29% 29%

Alianza Draw Internacional de Bogota

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLWWLWLD

Internacional de Bogota 1-7-2 (W-D-L)

DDDDWLLDDD

Head-to-head

Alianza 0–1 Internacional de Bogota (1 last)

Internacional de Bogota2-1Alianza

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza 1450 · Internacional de Bogota 1520

	Alianza	Draw	Internacional de Bogota
Our model	42%	28%	30%
Market	41%	30%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Internacional de Bogota (rating 1450 vs 1520).
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza	Internacional de Bogota
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.6	2.9 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.4 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.10

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:15 +3’	2.25	3.10	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza 0–0–1 Internacional de Bogota

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/04/26 Colombia Primera A	Internacional de Bogota	2-1 HT 0-1	Alianza

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	14	8	4	2	26	10	28
2	Atletico Nacional Medellin	12	8	2	2	25	11	26
3	Deportivo Cali	14	7	5	2	20	9	26
4	Millonarios	15	6	7	2	23	13	25
5	Atletico Bucaramanga	13	6	7	0	22	12	25
6	Independiente Medellin	14	7	2	5	21	19	23
7	Independiente Santa Fe	13	6	4	3	19	13	22
8	Deportes Tolima	15	5	5	5	18	18	20
9	Once Caldas	14	5	4	5	18	16	19
10	Aguilas Doradas	14	4	7	3	19	19	19
11	Cucuta Deportivo	13	5	3	5	16	19	18
12	Llaneros	14	5	2	7	16	17	17
13	Internacional de Bogota	14	2	8	4	16	20	14
14	Junior	14	2	6	6	19	23	12
15	Alianza	13	3	3	7	14	26	12
16	Boyaca Chico	13	3	3	7	11	23	12
17	Fortaleza CEIF	13	1	8	4	14	19	11
18	Deportivo Pereira	13	1	7	5	8	18	10
19	Jaguares de Cordoba	13	2	4	7	15	26	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	12	2	3	7	9	18	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza	Internacional de Bogota
Aguilas Doradas	2-2 D	2-2 D
Deportivo Cali	1-3 L	2-2 D
Junior	1-0 W	2-2 D
Atletico Nacional Medellin	1-5 L	2-3 L
Deportivo Pereira	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Internacional de Bogota (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza

DLLLWWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-2	2-2	6	11	D
03/10	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-3	5	9	L
27/09	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
19/09	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-2	1-4	6	5	L
16/09	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	2-1	2-1	2	4	W
13/09	Junior Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	6	9	W
03/09	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
30/08	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-3	1-5	2	5	L
26/08	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	5	11	L
22/08	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	4	5	D

Internacional de Bogota

DDDDWLLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Junior Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-2	7	3	D
04/10	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	1	3	D
26/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	4	10	D
20/09	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	11	5	L
17/09	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-3	3	3	L
12/09	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	2-2	3-2	5	4	W
06/09	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-2	3	9	D
31/08	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
28/08	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	10	3	D
24/08	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-2	2	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza vs Internacional de Bogota?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza win (42%). Probabilities: Alianza 42%, draw 29%, Internacional de Bogota 29%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza vs Internacional de Bogota?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Alianza 1.46 · Internacional de Bogota 1.2), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza vs Internacional de Bogota?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.