Football · Colombia Primera A · 02/11, 00:10

Prediction: Independiente Medellin vs Alianza

Team pages: Independiente Medellin · Alianza

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Independiente Medellin1.87

Alianza0.83

1X2

61% 23% 15%

Independiente Medellin Draw Alianza

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente Medellin 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDWLDLWLLL

Alianza 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLWLDWWL

Head-to-head

Independiente Medellin 2–2–1 Alianza (5 last)

Alianza0-1Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin1-1Alianza
Alianza1-1Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin2-0Alianza
Alianza2-0Independiente Medellin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente Medellin 1454 · Alianza 1495

	Independiente Medellin	Draw	Alianza
Our model	61%	24%	15%
Market	61%	23%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza (rating 1454 vs 1495).
H2H favours Independiente Medellin: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente Medellin	Alianza
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.8	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.9	2.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.6	5.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.10

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Pinn 1.53
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.17
2	5.75 → 6.00▲	Pinn 6.34 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.3% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:15 +9’	1.53	4.10	5.75
03:32 +16’	1.53	4.10	6.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:12 +3’	1.51	4.03	5.93
03:12 +10’	1.45▼	4.31▲	6.85▲
03:53 +9’	1.47▲	4.23▼	6.59▼
05:43 +35’	1.51▲	4.09▼	6.14▼
00:13 +3’	1.53▲	4.14▲	6.27▲
12:25 +17’	1.53▲	4.17▲	6.34▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Medellin 2–2–1 Alianza

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Colombia Primera A	Alianza	0-1 HT 0-1	Independiente Medellin
13/07/25 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	1-1 HT 0-1	Alianza
27/01/25 Colombia Primera A	Alianza	1-1 HT 0-0	Independiente Medellin
11/10/24 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	2-0 HT 1-0	Alianza
25/02/24 Colombia Primera A	Alianza	2-0 HT 2-0	Independiente Medellin

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional Medellin	16	11	2	3	32	13	35
2	America de Cali	16	10	4	2	31	12	34
3	Deportivo Cali	16	8	6	2	24	10	30
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	16	7	7	2	25	16	28
5	Independiente Santa Fe	16	8	4	4	23	17	28
6	Millonarios	16	6	8	2	24	14	26
7	Once Caldas	17	6	6	5	21	18	24
8	Independiente Medellin	16	7	2	7	23	24	23
9	Aguilas Doradas	16	5	7	4	21	20	22
10	Cucuta Deportivo	16	6	3	7	18	24	21
11	Deportes Tolima	16	5	5	6	18	19	20
12	Internacional de Bogota	17	4	8	5	21	23	20
13	Llaneros	17	6	2	9	19	23	20
14	Alianza	16	5	3	8	16	27	18
15	Deportivo Pereira	16	3	8	5	12	19	17
16	Junior	17	3	7	7	23	27	16
17	Boyaca Chico	16	4	4	8	13	26	16
18	Jaguares de Cordoba	16	3	4	9	17	29	13
19	Fortaleza CEIF	16	1	9	6	17	24	12
20	Deportivo Pasto	16	3	3	10	11	24	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente Medellin	Alianza
Internacional de Bogota	1-3 L	1-0 W
Once Caldas	0-2 L	0-1 L
America de Cali	2-1 W	0-3 L
Independiente Santa Fe	0-1 L	1-4 L
Junior	0-2 L	1-0 W
Jaguares de Cordoba	2-1 W	2-1 W
Boyaca Chico	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Alianza (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Independiente Medellin

LDWLDLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-3	11	6	L
26/10	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-2	8	4	L
18/10	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
12/10	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	7	6	W
06/10	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	7	9	L
30/09	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-2	2	5	D
27/09	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
23/09	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	7	6	W
18/09	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-2	8	6	D
13/09	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	1	5	L

Alianza

LWWLWLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
25/10	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
20/10	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
10/10	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-2	2-2	6	11	D
03/10	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-3	5	9	L
27/09	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
19/09	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-2	1-4	6	5	L
16/09	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	2-1	2-1	2	4	W
13/09	Junior Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	6	9	W
03/09	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-3	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente Medellin vs Alianza?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Medellin win (61%). Probabilities: Independiente Medellin 61%, draw 23%, Alianza 15%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente Medellin vs Alianza?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Independiente Medellin 1.87 · Alianza 0.83), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente Medellin vs Alianza?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.