Football · Colombia Primera A · 02/11, 02:15

Prediction: Deportivo Cali vs Boyaca Chico

Team pages: Deportivo Cali · Boyaca Chico

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.24Total

Deportivo Cali1.75

Boyaca Chico0.49

1X2

69% 21% 10%

Deportivo Cali Draw Boyaca Chico

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

1-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Cali 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWDDWD

Boyaca Chico 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWDLLLWD

Head-to-head

Deportivo Cali 1–2–3 Boyaca Chico (6 last)

Boyaca Chico1-0Deportivo Cali
Boyaca Chico0-0Deportivo Cali
Boyaca Chico1-0Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali0-0Boyaca Chico
Boyaca Chico1-0Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali4-0Boyaca Chico

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Cali 1564 · Boyaca Chico 1473

	Deportivo Cali	Draw	Boyaca Chico
Our model	67%	24%	9%
Market	70%	20%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Cali (rating 1564 vs 1473).
H2H favours Boyaca Chico: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Cali	Boyaca Chico
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.4	0.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.1	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.3	2.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.6	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.75

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.80

2 (+1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Pinn 1.34
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	8.50 → 8.50	Pinn 9.54 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
20:17 +26’	1.33	4.75	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:12 +16’	1.40	4.16	7.94
03:15 +17’	1.41▲	4.23▲	8.17▲
05:19 +6’	1.35▼	4.50▲	9.19▲
07:16 +8’	1.34▼	4.56▲	9.44▲
10:24 +6’	1.34▼	4.61▲	9.54▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Cali 1–2–3 Boyaca Chico

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Colombia Primera A	Boyaca Chico	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Cali
26/08/25 Colombia Primera A	Boyaca Chico	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Cali
14/06/25 Colombia Cup	Boyaca Chico	1-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Cali
11/03/25 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Cali	0-0 HT 0-0	Boyaca Chico
11/08/24 Colombia Primera A	Boyaca Chico	1-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Cali
10/02/24 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Cali	4-0 HT 3-0	Boyaca Chico

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional Medellin	15	10	2	3	30	13	32
2	America de Cali	15	9	4	2	29	11	31
3	Deportivo Cali	16	8	6	2	24	10	30
4	Independiente Santa Fe	15	8	4	3	23	15	28
5	Millonarios	16	6	8	2	24	14	26
6	Atletico Bucaramanga	15	6	7	2	23	15	25
7	Independiente Medellin	15	7	2	6	22	21	23
8	Aguilas Doradas	16	5	7	4	21	20	22
9	Once Caldas	16	5	6	5	20	18	21
10	Cucuta Deportivo	16	6	3	7	18	24	21
11	Deportes Tolima	16	5	5	6	18	19	20
12	Alianza	15	5	3	7	16	26	18
13	Internacional de Bogota	16	3	8	5	18	22	17
14	Llaneros	16	5	2	9	16	21	17
15	Junior	16	3	7	6	21	24	16
16	Boyaca Chico	16	4	4	8	13	26	16
17	Deportivo Pereira	15	2	8	5	11	19	14
18	Jaguares de Cordoba	15	3	4	8	17	28	13
19	Fortaleza CEIF	15	1	9	5	16	22	12
20	Deportivo Pasto	15	3	3	9	10	22	12

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Cali	Boyaca Chico
Junior	0-0 D	1-1 D
Deportivo Pereira	0-0 D	0-2 L
Alianza	3-1 W	1-2 L
Cucuta Deportivo	3-0 W	0-1 L
Millonarios	1-1 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Cali (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Cali

DWWWWWDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
22/10	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
19/10	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
10/10	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
03/10	Alianza Colombia Primera A	0-0	3-1	3	9	W
28/09	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
23/09	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
20/09	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
14/09	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	0	4	W
11/09	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-1	3	10	D

Boyaca Chico

WLLWDLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	10	4	D
24/10	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
20/10	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	7	8	L
17/10	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-4	5	5	L
12/10	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	11	5	L
03/10	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
26/09	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	0-0	3-0	0	1	W
19/09	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
16/09	Alianza Colombia Primera A	1-2	1-2	9	4	L
13/09	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Cali vs Boyaca Chico?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Cali win (69%). Probabilities: Deportivo Cali 69%, draw 21%, Boyaca Chico 10%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Cali vs Boyaca Chico?

The model expects 2.24 goals (Deportivo Cali 1.75 · Boyaca Chico 0.49), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Cali vs Boyaca Chico?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.