Football · Colombia Primera A · 03/11, 02:15

Prediction: Atletico Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional Medellin

Team pages: Atletico Bucaramanga · Atletico Nacional Medellin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Atletico Bucaramanga1.18

Atletico Nacional Medellin1.49

1X2

29% 28% 43%

Atletico Bucaramanga Draw Atletico Nacional Medellin

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Bucaramanga 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDDLLW

Atletico Nacional Medellin 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWDWLWWW

Head-to-head

Atletico Bucaramanga 3–2–1 Atletico Nacional Medellin (6 last)

Atletico Nacional Medellin2-0Atletico Bucaramanga
Atletico Nacional Medellin0-1Atletico Bucaramanga
Atletico Bucaramanga2-0Atletico Nacional Medellin
Atletico Bucaramanga0-0Atletico Nacional Medellin
Atletico Nacional Medellin1-1Atletico Bucaramanga
Atletico Bucaramanga1-0Atletico Nacional Medellin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Bucaramanga 1526 · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1576

	Atletico Bucaramanga	Draw	Atletico Nacional Medellin
Our model	29%	28%	43%
Market	28%	29%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Nacional Medellin (rating 1526 vs 1576).
H2H favours Atletico Bucaramanga: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Bucaramanga	Atletico Nacional Medellin
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	1.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.1	3.3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.25

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
X	3.40 → 3.25▼	Pinn 3.28
2	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.23 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.5% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
20:29 +6’	3.10	3.40	2.20
02:05 +16’	3.30▲	3.25▼	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:17 +37’	3.25	3.28	2.23

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Bucaramanga 3–2–1 Atletico Nacional Medellin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/04/26 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Nacional Medellin	2-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Bucaramanga
14/09/25 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Nacional Medellin	0-1 HT 0-1	Atletico Bucaramanga
29/03/25 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Bucaramanga	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Nacional Medellin
07/02/25 Colombia Super Cup	Atletico Bucaramanga	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Nacional Medellin
30/01/25 Colombia Super Cup	Atletico Nacional Medellin	1-1 HT 0-1	Atletico Bucaramanga
24/09/24 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Bucaramanga	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Nacional Medellin

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional Medellin	16	11	2	3	32	13	35
2	America de Cali	16	10	4	2	31	12	34
3	Deportivo Cali	16	8	6	2	24	10	30
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	16	7	7	2	25	16	28
5	Independiente Santa Fe	16	8	4	4	23	17	28
6	Millonarios	16	6	8	2	24	14	26
7	Once Caldas	17	6	6	5	21	18	24
8	Independiente Medellin	16	7	2	7	23	24	23
9	Aguilas Doradas	16	5	7	4	21	20	22
10	Cucuta Deportivo	16	6	3	7	18	24	21
11	Deportes Tolima	16	5	5	6	18	19	20
12	Internacional de Bogota	17	4	8	5	21	23	20
13	Llaneros	17	6	2	9	19	23	20
14	Alianza	16	5	3	8	16	27	18
15	Deportivo Pereira	16	3	8	5	12	19	17
16	Junior	17	3	7	7	23	27	16
17	Boyaca Chico	16	4	4	8	13	26	16
18	Jaguares de Cordoba	16	3	4	9	17	29	13
19	Fortaleza CEIF	16	1	9	6	17	24	12
20	Deportivo Pasto	16	3	3	10	11	24	12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Bucaramanga	Atletico Nacional Medellin
Deportivo Pasto	2-1 W	3-0 W
Independiente Santa Fe	1-2 L	2-0 W
Boyaca Chico	0-1 L	4-1 W
Junior	3-1 W	3-1 W
Internacional de Bogota	2-0 W	3-2 W
Independiente Medellin	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	6 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Nacional Medellin (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Bucaramanga

WDWWWDDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
27/10	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
24/10	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
18/10	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
14/10	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
05/10	Junior Colombia Primera A	3-1	3-1	2	4	W
26/09	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	2-0	3-1	1	5	W
20/09	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
18/09	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	2-1	2-2	1	6	D
13/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	2-1	3-1	2	3	W

Atletico Nacional Medellin

WLDWDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	2-0	2-0	1	7	W
26/10	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
23/10	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
21/10	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
17/10	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	1-0	4-1	5	5	W
09/10	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
01/10	Junior Colombia Primera A	2-1	3-1	7	10	W
25/09	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
21/09	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-2	9	7	L
17/09	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-1	3-2	9	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Nacional Medellin win (43%). Probabilities: Atletico Bucaramanga 29%, draw 28%, Atletico Nacional Medellin 43%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Atletico Bucaramanga 1.18 · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1.49), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.