Football · Colombia Primera A · 02/11, 22:05

Prediction: Aguilas Doradas vs Fortaleza CEIF

Team pages: Aguilas Doradas · Fortaleza CEIF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Aguilas Doradas1.52

Fortaleza CEIF1

1X2

48% 28% 24%

Aguilas Doradas Draw Fortaleza CEIF

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Aguilas Doradas 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDLLWDDWLW

Fortaleza CEIF 0-6-4 (W-D-L)

LDDLDDDLDL

Head-to-head

Aguilas Doradas 1–2–3 Fortaleza CEIF (6 last)

Fortaleza CEIF2-0Aguilas Doradas
Aguilas Doradas2-2Fortaleza CEIF
Fortaleza CEIF2-1Aguilas Doradas
Fortaleza CEIF0-1Aguilas Doradas
Aguilas Doradas1-1Fortaleza CEIF
Fortaleza CEIF2-1Aguilas Doradas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aguilas Doradas 1495 · Fortaleza CEIF 1466

	Aguilas Doradas	Draw	Fortaleza CEIF
Our model	48%	28%	24%
Market	48%	28%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Fortaleza CEIF: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aguilas Doradas	Fortaleza CEIF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	1.9 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.3 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.30

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.95▲	Pinn 1.95
X	3.25 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	3.90 → 4.00▲	Pinn 4.15 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.6% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:18 +11’	1.91	3.25	3.90
03:46 +7’	1.95▲	3.30▲	4.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:45 +4’	1.95	3.24	4.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aguilas Doradas 1–2–3 Fortaleza CEIF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Colombia Primera A	Fortaleza CEIF	2-0 HT 1-0	Aguilas Doradas
04/08/25 Colombia Primera A	Aguilas Doradas	2-2 HT 1-0	Fortaleza CEIF
18/02/25 Colombia Primera A	Fortaleza CEIF	2-1 HT 1-0	Aguilas Doradas
15/11/24 Colombia Primera A	Fortaleza CEIF	0-1 HT 0-1	Aguilas Doradas
29/04/24 Colombia Primera A	Aguilas Doradas	1-1 HT 1-0	Fortaleza CEIF
09/07/16 Colombia Primera A	Fortaleza CEIF	2-1 HT 1-1	Aguilas Doradas

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional Medellin	16	11	2	3	32	13	35
2	America de Cali	16	10	4	2	31	12	34
3	Deportivo Cali	16	8	6	2	24	10	30
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	16	7	7	2	25	16	28
5	Independiente Santa Fe	16	8	4	4	23	17	28
6	Millonarios	16	6	8	2	24	14	26
7	Once Caldas	17	6	6	5	21	18	24
8	Independiente Medellin	16	7	2	7	23	24	23
9	Aguilas Doradas	16	5	7	4	21	20	22
10	Cucuta Deportivo	16	6	3	7	18	24	21
11	Deportes Tolima	16	5	5	6	18	19	20
12	Internacional de Bogota	17	4	8	5	21	23	20
13	Llaneros	17	6	2	9	19	23	20
14	Alianza	16	5	3	8	16	27	18
15	Deportivo Pereira	16	3	8	5	12	19	17
16	Junior	17	3	7	7	23	27	16
17	Boyaca Chico	16	4	4	8	13	26	16
18	Jaguares de Cordoba	16	3	4	9	17	29	13
19	Fortaleza CEIF	16	1	9	6	17	24	12
20	Deportivo Pasto	16	3	3	10	11	24	12

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aguilas Doradas	Fortaleza CEIF
Junior	0-1 L	1-4 L
Deportes Tolima	2-1 W	2-2 D
Jaguares de Cordoba	2-0 W	2-2 D
Deportivo Cali	0-2 L	1-1 D
America de Cali	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Aguilas Doradas (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aguilas Doradas

LDLLWDDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
24/10	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
18/10	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
14/10	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
10/10	Alianza Colombia Primera A	2-0	2-2	5	11	D
03/10	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-0	7	9	W
28/09	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
24/09	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	1	7	L
18/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-2	7	8	D
13/09	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-2	3	3	L

Fortaleza CEIF

LDDLDDDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
25/10	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
21/10	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
09/10	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
04/10	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
28/09	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-2	8	11	D
20/09	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-2	1-4	2	5	L
12/09	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-2	7	4	D
06/09	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-2	2-2	3	4	D
02/09	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	0	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aguilas Doradas vs Fortaleza CEIF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aguilas Doradas win (48%). Probabilities: Aguilas Doradas 48%, draw 28%, Fortaleza CEIF 24%.

How many goals are expected in Aguilas Doradas vs Fortaleza CEIF?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Aguilas Doradas 1.52 · Fortaleza CEIF 1), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Aguilas Doradas vs Fortaleza CEIF?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.