Football · England Northern Premier League · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Bury vs Leek Town

Team pages: Bury · Leek Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.16Total

Bury2.76

Leek Town1.4

1X2

65% 18% 17%

Bury Draw Leek Town

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Bury 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWLWLW

Leek Town 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLLLWDDW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bury 1561 · Leek Town 1532

	Bury	Draw	Leek Town
Our model	65%	18%	17%
Market	65%	19%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 4.16 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bury	Leek Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.1	2.3 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	2 / 0.6	1.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	43/29/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 7.8	1.9 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.38

X4.75

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.98

2 (+1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.38	Bet365 1.38
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:17 +9’	1.38	4.75	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	15	10	4	1	33	13	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	14	9	3	2	31	9	30
3	Guiseley	13	9	1	3	27	12	28
4	Gainsborough	14	9	1	4	31	17	28
5	Avro FC	14	9	1	4	37	27	28
6	Workington	15	7	3	5	26	25	24
7	Warrington Rylands	14	7	2	5	25	21	23
7	Warrington Town	14	6	5	3	25	21	23
9	Curzon Ashton	13	7	1	5	24	17	22
10	Alfreton Town	15	6	2	7	21	17	20
11	Lancaster City	16	6	2	8	20	29	20
12	Bury	11	6	1	4	22	11	19
13	Whitby	14	6	1	7	20	33	19
14	Emley AFC	15	4	5	6	16	26	17
15	Hyde Utd	15	4	3	8	15	29	15
16	Leek Town	13	3	5	5	26	26	14
17	Ashton Utd	14	3	5	6	17	18	14
18	Quorn	13	3	5	5	23	29	14
19	Stockton Town	15	3	3	9	18	28	12
20	Bamber Bridge	14	2	4	8	17	34	10
21	Ilkeston	15	3	1	11	10	34	10
22	FC United of Manchester	12	1	4	7	15	23	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bury	Leek Town
Emley AFC	4-0 W	1-2 L
Hyde Utd	1-2 L	2-1 W
Lancaster City	0-1 L	2-1 W
Warrington Rylands	1-0 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bury

WWLWLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	2-1	3-2	5	5	W
06/10	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	3-0	4-0	7	1	W
31/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
29/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	4-0	7-0	10	3	W
25/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-1	10	3	L
22/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	2-3	–	–	L
15/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
11/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	–	3-2	–	–	W

Leek Town

LWDLLLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-1	3	2	W
10/10	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	3-1	3-3	4	2	D
22/09	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
12/09	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-3	0	5	L
01/09	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
29/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-3	3	2	L
26/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	2-2	4-4	3	0	D
22/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W
18/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bury vs Leek Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bury win (65%). Probabilities: Bury 65%, draw 18%, Leek Town 17%.

How many goals are expected in Bury vs Leek Town?

The model expects 4.16 goals (Bury 2.76 · Leek Town 1.4), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bury vs Leek Town?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.