Football · England Northern Premier League · 03/11, 20:45

Prediction: Bury vs Avro FC

Team pages: Bury · Avro FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.18Total

Bury2.5

Avro FC1.68

1X2

55% 21% 25%

Bury Draw Avro FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Bury 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Avro FC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Bury 0–1–0 Avro FC (1 last)

Avro FC1-1Bury

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bury 1527 · Avro FC 1515

	Bury	Draw	Avro FC
Our model	55%	20%	25%
Market	54%	21%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 4.18 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bury	Avro FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.4	2.4 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.9 / 0.4	1.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	57/29/14%	25/63/13%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 7.1	1.5 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.3	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.65

X4.20

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:11 +4’	1.65	4.20	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bury 0–1–0 Avro FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/08/25 England Northern League Division One	Avro FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Bury

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	16	10	5	1	35	15	35
2	Cleethorpes Town	15	10	3	2	32	9	33
3	Guiseley	14	9	2	3	29	14	29
4	Gainsborough	16	9	2	5	32	21	29
5	Curzon Ashton	15	9	1	5	29	18	28
6	Avro FC	15	9	1	5	37	28	28
7	Workington	16	8	3	5	28	26	27
8	Warrington Rylands	15	8	2	5	27	22	26
9	Alfreton Town	16	7	2	7	23	18	23
10	Warrington Town	15	6	5	4	27	24	23
11	Bury	13	7	1	5	28	16	22
12	Lancaster City	17	6	3	8	20	29	21
13	Whitby	16	6	1	9	22	42	19
14	Quorn	15	4	6	5	27	32	18
15	Emley AFC	16	4	5	7	17	28	17
16	Stockton Town	16	4	3	9	23	28	15
17	Hyde Utd	16	4	3	9	15	30	15
18	Ashton Utd	15	3	5	7	18	20	14
19	Leek Town	15	3	5	7	30	33	14
20	Ilkeston	16	4	1	11	11	34	13
21	FC United of Manchester	15	2	6	7	20	26	12
22	Bamber Bridge	15	2	5	8	18	35	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bury	Avro FC
Leek Town	5-3 W	4-4 D
Stockton Town	0-1 L	5-3 W
Ilkeston	7-0 W	0-2 L
Lancaster City	0-1 L	5-3 W
Gainsborough	1-0 W	2-0 W
Guiseley	2-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Avro FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bury

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
27/10	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	3-0	5-3	7	5	W
10/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	2-1	3-2	5	5	W
06/10	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	3-0	4-0	7	1	W
31/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
29/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	4-0	7-0	10	3	W
25/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-1	10	3	L
22/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	2-3	–	–	L

Avro FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
21/10	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	3-0	3-2	2	2	W
17/10	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
13/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-3	2	3	L
10/10	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
07/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	2-2	5-3	4	1	W
12/09	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
31/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	1-1	4-3	8	2	W
29/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	3-1	5-3	6	2	W
26/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	2-2	4-4	6	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bury vs Avro FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bury win (55%). Probabilities: Bury 55%, draw 21%, Avro FC 25%.

How many goals are expected in Bury vs Avro FC?

The model expects 4.18 goals (Bury 2.5 · Avro FC 1.68), with a 55% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bury vs Avro FC?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.