Football · England Northern Premier League · 03/11, 20:45

Prediction: Guiseley vs Leek Town

Team pages: Guiseley · Leek Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.53Total

Guiseley2.25

Leek Town1.28

1X2

58% 22% 20%

Guiseley Draw Leek Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Guiseley 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLWWWD

Leek Town 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLWDDWLL

Head-to-head

Guiseley 1–2–1 Leek Town (4 last)

Guiseley1-0Leek Town
Leek Town4-0Guiseley
Leek Town2-2Guiseley
Guiseley1-1Leek Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guiseley 1638 · Leek Town 1490

	Guiseley	Draw	Leek Town
Our model	58%	21%	20%
Market	58%	22%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guiseley (rating 1638 vs 1490).
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guiseley	Leek Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.8	2.2 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	1.1 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	63/13/25%	33/22/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.1	1.6 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.10

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:08 +7’	1.53	4.10	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Guiseley 1–2–1 Leek Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/12/25 England Northern Premier League	Guiseley	1-0 HT 0-0	Leek Town
06/09/25 England Northern Premier League	Leek Town	4-0	Guiseley
22/02/25 England Northern Premier League	Leek Town	2-2 HT 1-1	Guiseley
10/12/24 England Northern Premier League	Guiseley	1-1 HT 0-0	Leek Town

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	16	10	5	1	35	15	35
2	Cleethorpes Town	15	10	3	2	32	9	33
3	Guiseley	14	9	2	3	29	14	29
4	Gainsborough	16	9	2	5	32	21	29
5	Curzon Ashton	15	9	1	5	29	18	28
6	Avro FC	15	9	1	5	37	28	28
7	Workington	16	8	3	5	28	26	27
8	Warrington Rylands	15	8	2	5	27	22	26
9	Alfreton Town	16	7	2	7	23	18	23
10	Warrington Town	15	6	5	4	27	24	23
11	Bury	13	7	1	5	28	16	22
12	Lancaster City	17	6	3	8	20	29	21
13	Whitby	16	6	1	9	22	42	19
14	Quorn	15	4	6	5	27	32	18
15	Emley AFC	16	4	5	7	17	28	17
16	Stockton Town	16	4	3	9	23	28	15
17	Hyde Utd	16	4	3	9	15	30	15
18	Ashton Utd	15	3	5	7	18	20	14
19	Leek Town	15	3	5	7	30	33	14
20	Ilkeston	16	4	1	11	11	34	13
21	FC United of Manchester	15	2	6	7	20	26	12
22	Bamber Bridge	15	2	5	8	18	35	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guiseley	Leek Town
Redcar Athletic	2-2 D	2-3 L
Avro FC	1-0 W	4-4 D
Lancaster City	1-2 L	2-1 W
Curzon Ashton	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Guiseley (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guiseley

WWLWWLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	0-2	2-2	4	6	D
20/10	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
10/10	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
06/10	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-0	7	7	W
29/09	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
12/09	Quorn England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W
31/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-0	4	5	W
28/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-2	3	5	L
25/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-0	10	1	W
22/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W

Leek Town

DLLLWDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
27/10	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-3	3-5	2	5	L
17/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-1	3	2	W
10/10	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	3-1	3-3	4	2	D
22/09	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
12/09	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-3	0	5	L
01/09	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
29/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-3	3	2	L
26/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	2-2	4-4	3	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guiseley vs Leek Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guiseley win (58%). Probabilities: Guiseley 58%, draw 22%, Leek Town 20%.

How many goals are expected in Guiseley vs Leek Town?

The model expects 3.53 goals (Guiseley 2.25 · Leek Town 1.28), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Guiseley vs Leek Town?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.