Football · England Northern Premier League · 06/11, 20:45

Prediction: Quorn vs Alfreton Town

Team pages: Quorn · Alfreton Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

Quorn1.53

Alfreton Town1.8

1X2

32% 24% 43%

Quorn Draw Alfreton Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Quorn 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWLWDWDD

Alfreton Town 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWLDDW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Quorn 1511 · Alfreton Town 1523

	Quorn	Draw	Alfreton Town
Our model	32%	25%	43%
Market	33%	24%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Quorn	Alfreton Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2.1	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/43/29%	33/56/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.1	3.1 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.75

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
11:04 +4’	2.75	3.75	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	16	10	5	1	35	15	35
2	Cleethorpes Town	15	10	3	2	32	9	33
3	Guiseley	15	10	2	3	33	15	32
4	Curzon Ashton	16	10	1	5	30	18	31
5	Gainsborough	16	9	2	5	32	21	29
6	Avro FC	16	9	2	5	39	30	29
7	Workington	16	8	3	5	28	26	27
8	Warrington Rylands	15	8	2	5	27	22	26
9	Warrington Town	16	7	5	4	28	24	26
10	Bury	14	7	2	5	30	18	23
11	Alfreton Town	16	7	2	7	23	18	23
12	Lancaster City	17	6	3	8	20	29	21
13	Emley AFC	17	5	5	7	19	28	20
14	Whitby	16	6	1	9	22	42	19
15	Quorn	15	4	6	5	27	32	18
16	Stockton Town	16	4	3	9	23	28	15
17	Hyde Utd	16	4	3	9	15	30	15
18	Ashton Utd	16	3	5	8	18	21	14
19	Leek Town	16	3	5	8	31	37	14
20	Ilkeston	16	4	1	11	11	34	13
21	FC United of Manchester	16	2	6	8	20	27	12
22	Bamber Bridge	16	2	5	9	18	37	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Quorn	Alfreton Town
FC United of Manchester	1-1 D	1-0 W
Ashton Utd	2-2 D	0-0 D
Bamber Bridge	4-2 W	0-1 L
Guiseley	1-4 L	1-0 W
Whitby	3-6 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Alfreton Town (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Quorn

DDLWLWDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
13/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	0	8	D
10/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-0	7	6	W
06/10	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-2	7	6	D
03/10	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-2	7	1	W
12/09	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	1-4	–	–	L
31/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
29/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	3-6	–	–	L
25/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	4	0	D
22/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D

Alfreton Town

LWLWLWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-1	8	7	W
17/10	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
13/10	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
10/10	Bury England Northern Premier League	1-2	2-3	4	5	L
06/10	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
03/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	1-3	–	–	L
29/09	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
12/09	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
31/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-1	6	4	W
29/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-2	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Quorn vs Alfreton Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Alfreton Town win (43%). Probabilities: Quorn 32%, draw 24%, Alfreton Town 43%.

How many goals are expected in Quorn vs Alfreton Town?

The model expects 3.33 goals (Quorn 1.53 · Alfreton Town 1.8), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Quorn vs Alfreton Town?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.