Football · England Northern Premier League · 03/11, 20:45

Prediction: Ashton Utd vs Warrington Town

Team pages: Ashton Utd · Warrington Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Ashton Utd1.46

Warrington Town1.36

1X2

39% 26% 35%

Ashton Utd Draw Warrington Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Ashton Utd 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLDDDLLL

Warrington Town 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWLDDWDL

Head-to-head

Ashton Utd 2–1–3 Warrington Town (6 last)

Warrington Town2-2Ashton Utd
Ashton Utd1-0Warrington Town
Warrington Town2-1Ashton Utd
Ashton Utd0-1Warrington Town
Warrington Town3-0Ashton Utd
Ashton Utd2-1Warrington Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ashton Utd 1443 · Warrington Town 1494

	Ashton Utd	Draw	Warrington Town
Our model	39%	28%	34%
Market	40%	25%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Warrington Town (rating 1443 vs 1494).
H2H favours Warrington Town: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ashton Utd	Warrington Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	1.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.2	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/22/56%	22/33/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.9	2.6 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.60

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:11 +4’	2.25	3.60	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ashton Utd 2–1–3 Warrington Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/09/26 England FA Trophy	Warrington Town	2-2	Ashton Utd
07/02/26 England Northern Premier League	Ashton Utd	1-0 HT 1-0	Warrington Town
28/10/25 England Northern Premier League	Warrington Town	2-1 HT 0-0	Ashton Utd
26/07/24 Club Friendly List	Ashton Utd	0-1 HT 0-0	Warrington Town
08/04/23 England Northern Premier League	Warrington Town	3-0 HT 2-0	Ashton Utd
27/08/22 England Northern Premier League	Ashton Utd	2-1 HT 1-0	Warrington Town

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	16	10	5	1	35	15	35
2	Cleethorpes Town	15	10	3	2	32	9	33
3	Guiseley	14	9	2	3	29	14	29
4	Gainsborough	16	9	2	5	32	21	29
5	Curzon Ashton	15	9	1	5	29	18	28
6	Avro FC	15	9	1	5	37	28	28
7	Workington	16	8	3	5	28	26	27
8	Warrington Rylands	15	8	2	5	27	22	26
9	Alfreton Town	16	7	2	7	23	18	23
10	Warrington Town	15	6	5	4	27	24	23
11	Bury	13	7	1	5	28	16	22
12	Lancaster City	17	6	3	8	20	29	21
13	Whitby	16	6	1	9	22	42	19
14	Quorn	15	4	6	5	27	32	18
15	Emley AFC	16	4	5	7	17	28	17
16	Stockton Town	16	4	3	9	23	28	15
17	Hyde Utd	16	4	3	9	15	30	15
18	Ashton Utd	15	3	5	7	18	20	14
19	Leek Town	15	3	5	7	30	33	14
20	Ilkeston	16	4	1	11	11	34	13
21	FC United of Manchester	15	2	6	7	20	26	12
22	Bamber Bridge	15	2	5	8	18	35	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ashton Utd	Warrington Town
Alfreton Town	0-0 D	1-1 D
Leek Town	2-2 D	2-1 W
Curzon Ashton	0-2 L	0-4 L
Gainsborough	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ashton Utd

DLLLDDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	1-2	1-2	5	4	L
21/10	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	0-3	2-3	3	2	L
17/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-2	7	3	L
13/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
10/10	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/10	Quorn England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-2	2	6	D
12/09	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
31/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-2	0-2	5	5	L
28/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-2	10	6	L
25/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	5	4	D

Warrington Town

WLDWLDDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	1-2	1-2	9	0	L
17/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
13/10	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
10/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-2	5	1	D
06/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-2	3	3	D
12/09	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-4	2	5	L
01/09	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
29/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
25/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-4	4	3	L
22/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	5-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ashton Utd vs Warrington Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ashton Utd win (39%). Probabilities: Ashton Utd 39%, draw 26%, Warrington Town 35%.

How many goals are expected in Ashton Utd vs Warrington Town?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Ashton Utd 1.46 · Warrington Town 1.36), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Ashton Utd vs Warrington Town?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.