Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 01/11, 02:30

Prediction: Atletico Choloma vs CD Olimpia

Team pages: Atletico Choloma · CD Olimpia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

Atletico Choloma0.97

CD Olimpia1.76

1X2

20% 24% 55%

Atletico Choloma Draw CD Olimpia

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Choloma 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLDLWLWW

CD Olimpia 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDWLWWWW

Head-to-head

Atletico Choloma 0–4 CD Olimpia (4 last)

Atletico Choloma1-3CD Olimpia
CD Olimpia3-0Atletico Choloma
CD Olimpia2-0Atletico Choloma
Atletico Choloma2-7CD Olimpia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Choloma 1477 · CD Olimpia 1608

	Atletico Choloma	Draw	CD Olimpia
Our model	20%	26%	55%
Market	21%	24%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Olimpia (rating 1477 vs 1608).
H2H favours CD Olimpia: 4-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 13.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Choloma	CD Olimpia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	2.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.2	1.5 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7.6 / 0.2	6.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

14.33

X3.80

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.80

2 (-1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
03:25 +6’	4.33	3.80	1.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Choloma 0–0–4 CD Olimpia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Atletico Choloma	1-3 HT 0-0	CD Olimpia
26/02/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Olimpia	3-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Choloma
29/09/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Olimpia	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Choloma
24/07/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Atletico Choloma	2-7 HT 1-2	CD Olimpia

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Olimpia	11	8	2	1	23	8	26
2	Real Espana	11	7	3	1	19	9	24
3	CD Marathon	11	6	4	1	18	9	22
4	Motagua	11	7	1	3	17	9	22
5	Atletico Choloma	11	4	1	6	12	12	13
6	Olancho FC	11	2	7	2	11	11	13
7	Estrella Roja	11	3	4	4	18	21	13
8	Lobos UPNFM	11	3	3	5	11	13	12
9	Genesis de Comayagua	11	3	2	6	12	12	11
10	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	11	2	5	4	10	18	11
11	CD Platense	11	2	2	7	11	25	8
12	Juticalpa	11	2	0	9	10	25	6

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Choloma	CD Olimpia
Genesis de Comayagua	3-1 W	1-0 W
Juticalpa	2-1 W	3-1 W
Motagua	1-2 L	3-1 W
Estrella Roja	2-0 W	2-2 D
Lobos UPNFM	0-1 L	1-0 W
Olancho FC	0-0 D	1-1 D
Real Espana	1-2 L	2-1 W
CD Platense	2-0 W	4-1 W
CD Marathon	0-1 L	0-1 L
CA Independiente Siguatepeque	1-2 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 5 L	7 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Olimpia (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Choloma

LLWLDLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	3-1	2	9	W
18/10	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
11/10	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-2	1-2	6	9	L
19/09	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	2-0	1	9	W
13/09	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-1	4	7	L
05/09	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
31/08	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	1-2	5	6	L
23/08	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	2-0	9	9	W
16/08	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	12	8	L
10/08	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	1-2	1-2	2	7	L

CD Olimpia

WWDDWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
16/10	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	2-1	4	11	W
10/10	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
21/09	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	3-0	4-0	2	4	W
14/09	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	6	14	L
04/09	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	2-1	4-1	6	4	W
30/08	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-2	5	9	D
24/08	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
17/08	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	3-1	7	8	W
09/08	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	3-1	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Choloma vs CD Olimpia?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Olimpia win (55%). Probabilities: Atletico Choloma 20%, draw 24%, CD Olimpia 55%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Choloma vs CD Olimpia?

The model expects 2.74 goals (Atletico Choloma 0.97 · CD Olimpia 1.76), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Choloma vs CD Olimpia?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.