Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 31/10, 22:00
Prediction: Lobos UPNFM vs Genesis de Comayagua
Team pages: Lobos UPNFM · Genesis de Comayagua
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.25Total
Lobos UPNFM1.21
Genesis de Comayagua1.04
1X2
Lobos UPNFM
Draw
Genesis de Comayagua
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Lobos UPNFM
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Genesis de Comayagua
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lobos UPNFM
3–1
Genesis de Comayagua
(4 last)
- Lobos UPNFM0-1Genesis de Comayagua
- Genesis de Comayagua0-2Lobos UPNFM
- Genesis de Comayagua2-3Lobos UPNFM
- Lobos UPNFM2-1Genesis de Comayagua
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lobos UPNFM 1499 · Genesis de Comayagua 1454
| Lobos UPNFM | Draw | Genesis de Comayagua | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 31% | 30% |
| Market | 41% | 27% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lobos UPNFM (rating 1499 vs 1454).
- H2H favours Lobos UPNFM: 3-0-1.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lobos UPNFM | Genesis de Comayagua | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.1 | 1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.9 | 2.9 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0 | 4.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lobos UPNFM 3–0–1 Genesis de Comayagua
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/26 Honduras Liga Nacional | Lobos UPNFM | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Genesis de Comayagua |
| 02/03/26 Honduras Liga Nacional | Genesis de Comayagua | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Lobos UPNFM |
| 28/09/25 Honduras Liga Nacional | Genesis de Comayagua | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Lobos UPNFM |
| 24/07/25 Honduras Liga Nacional | Lobos UPNFM | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Genesis de Comayagua |
Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Olimpia | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 8 | 26 |
| 2 | Real Espana | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 9 | 24 |
| 3 | CD Marathon | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 9 | 22 |
| 4 | Motagua | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Estrella Roja | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 22 | 16 |
| 6 | Atletico Choloma | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 13 |
| 7 | Olancho FC | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 13 |
| 8 | Lobos UPNFM | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 12 |
| 9 | Genesis de Comayagua | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| 10 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 11 |
| 11 | CD Platense | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 25 | 8 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 25 | 6 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lobos UPNFM | Genesis de Comayagua |
|---|---|---|
| CD Olimpia | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| CA Independiente Siguatepeque | 4-0 W | 1-1 D |
| CD Marathon | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| CD Platense | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Atletico Choloma | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Real Espana | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Juticalpa | 0-1 L | 3-0 W |
| Motagua | 1-4 L | 0-1 L |
| Estrella Roja | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Olancho FC | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 4 L | 2 W 2 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Lobos UPNFM (4 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lobos UPNFM
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 18/10 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 11/10 | CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 18/09 | CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 07/09 | Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-3 | 1-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 16/08 | Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
Genesis de Comayagua
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 18/10 | Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 13 | L |
| 10/10 | CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 19/09 | Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 07/09 | Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 22/08 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lobos UPNFM vs Genesis de Comayagua?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lobos UPNFM win (40%). Probabilities: Lobos UPNFM 40%, draw 29%, Genesis de Comayagua 31%.
How many goals are expected in Lobos UPNFM vs Genesis de Comayagua?
The model expects 2.25 goals (Lobos UPNFM 1.21 · Genesis de Comayagua 1.04), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Lobos UPNFM vs Genesis de Comayagua?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.