Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 26/10, 21:30

Prediction: Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa

Team pages: Tecnico Universitario · Mushuc Runa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.02Total

Tecnico Universitario1

Mushuc Runa1.02

1X2

34% 31% 35%

Tecnico Universitario Draw Mushuc Runa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Tecnico Universitario 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLWDLL

Mushuc Runa 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWDDLDLD

Head-to-head

Tecnico Universitario 1–2–3 Mushuc Runa (6 last)

Tecnico Universitario0-3Mushuc Runa
Mushuc Runa1-0Tecnico Universitario
Mushuc Runa1-0Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario0-0Mushuc Runa
Mushuc Runa0-1Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario1-1Mushuc Runa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tecnico Universitario 1426 · Mushuc Runa 1514

	Tecnico Universitario	Draw	Mushuc Runa
Our model	33%	33%	34%
Market	34%	30%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mushuc Runa (rating 1426 vs 1514).
H2H favours Mushuc Runa: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tecnico Universitario	Mushuc Runa
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.5	2.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.4	4.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.10

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.83 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:10 +7’	2.70	3.10	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:46 +1782’	2.83	3.02	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tecnico Universitario 1–2–3 Mushuc Runa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/08/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Tecnico Universitario	0-3 HT 0-2	Mushuc Runa
18/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Mushuc Runa	1-0 HT 0-0	Tecnico Universitario
22/11/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Mushuc Runa	1-0 HT 1-0	Tecnico Universitario
01/11/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Tecnico Universitario	0-0 HT 0-0	Mushuc Runa
27/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Mushuc Runa	0-1 HT 0-1	Tecnico Universitario
06/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Tecnico Universitario	1-1 HT 1-1	Mushuc Runa

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Cuenca	33	11	8	14	28	39	41
2	Mushuc Runa	33	9	13	11	39	43	40
3	Delfin SC	33	9	8	16	27	36	35
4	Orense	33	9	8	16	38	50	35
5	Tecnico Universitario	33	10	3	20	30	46	33
6	Manta FC	33	7	6	20	22	47	27

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tecnico Universitario	Mushuc Runa
Deportivo Cuenca	1-2 L	1-1 D
Delfin SC	1-1 D	2-3 L
Leones FC	1-0 W	1-1 D
LDU Quito	1-3 L	0-0 D
Guayaquil City	2-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Tecnico Universitario (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tecnico Universitario

LLLWLLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
10/10	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
20/09	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
13/09	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
05/09	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-3	4	2	L
01/09	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	2	10	L
29/08	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	3-1	4	4	W
22/08	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-3	4	6	L
16/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	1-2	8	2	L
10/08	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-3	3	7	L

Mushuc Runa

WDDWDDLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
09/10	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-2	2-3	7	4	L
20/09	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
12/09	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-3	4	7	L
08/09	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
02/09	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
28/08	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
22/08	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
16/08	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
10/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mushuc Runa win (35%). Probabilities: Tecnico Universitario 34%, draw 31%, Mushuc Runa 35%.

How many goals are expected in Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa?

The model expects 2.02 goals (Tecnico Universitario 1 · Mushuc Runa 1.02), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.