Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 01/11, 17:00
Prediction: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs SD Aucas
Team pages: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador · SD Aucas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.35Total
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador1.49
SD Aucas0.86
1X2
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Draw
SD Aucas
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
SD Aucas
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
2–2–2
SD Aucas
(6 last)
- Universidad Catolica del Ecuador1-1SD Aucas
- SD Aucas2-1Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
- Universidad Catolica del Ecuador6-2SD Aucas
- SD Aucas2-1Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
- Universidad Catolica del Ecuador0-0SD Aucas
- Universidad Catolica del Ecuador3-2SD Aucas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1520 · SD Aucas 1465
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | Draw | SD Aucas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 29% | 21% |
| Market | 51% | 27% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (rating 1520 vs 1465).
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | SD Aucas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1 | 0.7 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.9 | 1.8 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 4.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 2–2–2 SD Aucas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 1-1 HT 1-0 | SD Aucas |
| 09/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
| 03/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 6-2 HT 4-1 | SD Aucas |
| 16/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
| 07/03/25 Copa Sudamericana | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 0-0 HT 0-0 | SD Aucas |
| 09/11/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 3-2 HT 2-1 | SD Aucas |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Championship Round
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 33 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 75 | 35 | 78 |
| 2 | Macara | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 47 | 35 | 63 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 53 | 31 | 53 |
| 4 | LDU Quito | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 37 | 29 | 53 |
| 5 | SD Aucas | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 36 | 37 | 51 |
| 6 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 33 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 38 | 28 | 48 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | SD Aucas |
|---|---|---|
| Independiente del Valle | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Barcelona Guayaquil | 1-1 D | 0-4 L |
| Macara | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| LDU Quito | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Delfin SC | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Manta FC | 5-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 18/10 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 11/10 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 21/09 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 15/09 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 03/09 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 29/08 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 18/08 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
SD Aucas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-4 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 17/10 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 10/10 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 07/09 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 03/09 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 30/08 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 23/08 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 17/08 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 10 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs SD Aucas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad Catolica del Ecuador win (51%). Probabilities: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 51%, draw 28%, SD Aucas 21%.
How many goals are expected in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs SD Aucas?
The model expects 2.35 goals (Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1.49 · SD Aucas 0.86), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs SD Aucas?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.