Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 01/11, 19:30

Prediction: Independiente del Valle vs LDU Quito

Team pages: Independiente del Valle · LDU Quito

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Independiente del Valle1.65

LDU Quito0.96

1X2

53% 26% 21%

Independiente del Valle Draw LDU Quito

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente del Valle 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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LDU Quito 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Independiente del Valle 1–3–2 LDU Quito (6 last)

LDU Quito0-2Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle0-2LDU Quito
Independiente del Valle0-0LDU Quito
LDU Quito2-1Independiente del Valle
LDU Quito1-1Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle1-1LDU Quito

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente del Valle 1536 · LDU Quito 1547

	Independiente del Valle	Draw	LDU Quito
Our model	52%	27%	21%
Market	53%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours LDU Quito: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente del Valle	LDU Quito
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.3	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 5.9	3.2 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.50

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.73▼	Pinn 1.77
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.72 ★
2	3.70 → 4.33▲	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:24 +2’	1.91	3.40	3.70
12:44 +24’	1.73▼	3.50▲	4.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:42 +43’	1.86	3.66	3.86
06:59 +15’	1.65▼	3.93▲	4.76▲
08:08 +7’	1.75▲	3.75▼	4.28▼
19:24 +19’	1.77▲	3.72▼	4.21▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente del Valle 1–3–2 LDU Quito

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	0-2 HT 0-1	Independiente del Valle
19/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Independiente del Valle	0-2 HT 0-1	LDU Quito
10/12/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Independiente del Valle	0-0 HT 0-0	LDU Quito
29/11/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	2-1 HT 0-0	Independiente del Valle
22/06/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	1-1 HT 0-0	Independiente del Valle
23/02/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Independiente del Valle	1-1 HT 1-0	LDU Quito

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	33	25	3	5	75	35	78
2	Macara	34	19	6	9	47	35	63
3	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	34	14	11	9	53	31	53
4	LDU Quito	34	15	8	11	37	29	53
5	SD Aucas	34	14	9	11	36	37	51
6	Barcelona Guayaquil	33	12	12	9	38	28	48

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente del Valle	LDU Quito
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	0-0 D	2-1 W
Macara	0-1 L	1-2 L
SD Aucas	2-1 W	1-1 D
Barcelona Guayaquil	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: LDU Quito (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Independiente del Valle

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
17/10	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
10/10	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
14/09	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	3-2	6	4	W
06/09	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	3-0	3-1	4	1	W
03/09	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	3	5	L
29/08	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-2	5	2	D
22/08	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	3-2	9	5	W
15/08	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	3-1	3-2	9	4	W
08/08	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	2	1	W

LDU Quito

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	7	0	L
17/10	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	8	1	D
11/10	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	8	8	W
21/09	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
13/09	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
05/09	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	3-1	6	2	W
02/09	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
29/08	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
24/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	10	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente del Valle vs LDU Quito?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente del Valle win (53%). Probabilities: Independiente del Valle 53%, draw 26%, LDU Quito 21%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente del Valle vs LDU Quito?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Independiente del Valle 1.65 · LDU Quito 0.96), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente del Valle vs LDU Quito?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.