Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 31/10, 22:30
Prediction: Macara vs Barcelona Guayaquil
Team pages: Macara · Barcelona Guayaquil
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.55Total
Macara1.56
Barcelona Guayaquil0.99
1X2
Macara
Draw
Barcelona Guayaquil
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Macara
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Barcelona Guayaquil
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Macara
3–1–2
Barcelona Guayaquil
(6 last)
- Barcelona Guayaquil1-2Macara
- Macara3-1Barcelona Guayaquil
- Barcelona Guayaquil0-2Macara
- Macara0-1Barcelona Guayaquil
- Barcelona Guayaquil2-1Macara
- Macara1-1Barcelona Guayaquil
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Macara 1586 · Barcelona Guayaquil 1502
| Macara | Draw | Barcelona Guayaquil | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Market | 49% | 29% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Macara (rating 1586 vs 1502).
- H2H favours Macara: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Macara | Barcelona Guayaquil | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.1 | 1.4 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.1 | 3.1 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.2 | 4.5 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Macara 3–1–2 Barcelona Guayaquil
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Barcelona Guayaquil | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Macara |
| 20/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Barcelona Guayaquil |
| 18/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Barcelona Guayaquil | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Macara |
| 27/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Barcelona Guayaquil |
| 16/09/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Barcelona Guayaquil | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Macara |
| 30/03/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Barcelona Guayaquil |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Championship Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 33 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 75 | 35 | 78 |
| 2 | Macara | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 47 | 35 | 63 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 53 | 31 | 53 |
| 4 | LDU Quito | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 37 | 29 | 53 |
| 5 | SD Aucas | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 36 | 37 | 51 |
| 6 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 33 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 38 | 28 | 48 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Macara | Barcelona Guayaquil |
|---|---|---|
| LDU Quito | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Independiente del Valle | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| SD Aucas | 2-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Manta FC | 4-3 W | 0-2 L |
| Orense | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 0 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Macara (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Macara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 17/10 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 11/10 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 02/09 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 25/08 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 18/08 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
Barcelona Guayaquil
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 18/10 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 14 | 6 | D |
| 11/10 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 14/09 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 07/09 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 03/09 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 30/08 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 23/08 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 16/08 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Macara vs Barcelona Guayaquil?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Macara win (49%). Probabilities: Macara 49%, draw 28%, Barcelona Guayaquil 23%.
How many goals are expected in Macara vs Barcelona Guayaquil?
The model expects 2.55 goals (Macara 1.56 · Barcelona Guayaquil 0.99), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Macara vs Barcelona Guayaquil?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.