Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 01/11, 22:00

Prediction: Guayaquil City vs Club Atletico Libertad

Team pages: Guayaquil City · Club Atletico Libertad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Guayaquil City1.68

Club Atletico Libertad1.22

1X2

46% 28% 26%

Guayaquil City Draw Club Atletico Libertad

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Guayaquil City 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLLWDWLW

Club Atletico Libertad 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWLDWLWWWL

Head-to-head

Guayaquil City 1–2–2 Club Atletico Libertad (5 last)

Club Atletico Libertad4-0Guayaquil City
Guayaquil City2-2Club Atletico Libertad
Club Atletico Libertad0-1Guayaquil City
Club Atletico Libertad1-0Guayaquil City
Guayaquil City1-1Club Atletico Libertad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guayaquil City 1532 · Club Atletico Libertad 1515

	Guayaquil City	Draw	Club Atletico Libertad
Our model	47%	26%	27%
Market	46%	29%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Club Atletico Libertad: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guayaquil City	Club Atletico Libertad
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.8	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.9	1.4 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.20

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 1 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.00▼	Bet365 2.00
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.37
2	3.40 → 3.60▲	Pinn 4.11 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:24 +2’	2.10	3.20	3.40
08:14 +1’	2.00▼	3.20	3.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:43 +42’	2.06	3.36	3.52
08:08 +7’	1.92▼	3.35▼	4.01▲
13:25 +7’	1.89▼	3.37▲	4.11▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Guayaquil City 1–2–2 Club Atletico Libertad

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/10/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	4-0 HT 1-0	Guayaquil City
15/08/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Guayaquil City	2-2 HT 0-2	Club Atletico Libertad
22/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	0-1 HT 0-0	Guayaquil City
10/10/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	1-0 HT 0-0	Guayaquil City
06/05/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Guayaquil City	1-1 HT 0-0	Club Atletico Libertad

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Qualifying Round

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico Libertad	34	14	8	12	43	39	50
2	Guayaquil City	34	12	10	12	38	43	46
3	Leones FC	34	11	10	13	37	40	43
4	Emelec	34	11	9	14	31	41	42

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guayaquil City	Club Atletico Libertad
Emelec	1-0 W	2-1 W
Leones FC	1-1 D	1-4 L
Deportivo Cuenca	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guayaquil City

DWWLLWDWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	0	6	W
17/10	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-4	3	3	L
10/10	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	3-2	5	4	W
19/09	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	3	8	D
12/09	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-1	4	7	W
08/09	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-2	3-4	1	4	L
02/09	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
29/08	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	3-2	6	6	W
15/08	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	2-2	1	3	D

Club Atletico Libertad

DWLDWLWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-4	4	3	L
17/10	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
09/10	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
20/09	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	8	7	W
14/09	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
07/09	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
04/09	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
30/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
25/08	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
15/08	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-2	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guayaquil City vs Club Atletico Libertad?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guayaquil City win (46%). Probabilities: Guayaquil City 46%, draw 28%, Club Atletico Libertad 26%.

How many goals are expected in Guayaquil City vs Club Atletico Libertad?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Guayaquil City 1.68 · Club Atletico Libertad 1.22), with a 58% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Guayaquil City vs Club Atletico Libertad?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.