Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 23/10, 22:30
Prediction: Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Team pages: Independiente del Valle · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.89Total
Independiente del Valle1.88
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador1.01
1X2
Independiente del Valle
Draw
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente del Valle
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente del Valle
3–1–2
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
(6 last)
- Independiente del Valle2-2Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
- Universidad Catolica del Ecuador0-3Independiente del Valle
- Universidad Catolica del Ecuador2-3Independiente del Valle
- Universidad Catolica del Ecuador0-1Independiente del Valle
- Independiente del Valle0-2Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
- Independiente del Valle1-2Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente del Valle 1579 · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1496
| Independiente del Valle | Draw | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Market | 56% | 25% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (rating 1579 vs 1496).
- H2H favours Independiente del Valle: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente del Valle | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.3 | 1.5 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 5.8 | 1.5 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.3 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente del Valle 3–1–2 Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
| 14/05/26 Ecuador Super Cup | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Independiente del Valle |
| 01/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 2-3 HT 1-3 | Independiente del Valle |
| 14/12/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Independiente del Valle |
| 08/11/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
| 14/10/25 Ecuador Cup | Independiente del Valle | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Championship Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 32 | 25 | 2 | 5 | 75 | 35 | 77 |
| 2 | Macara | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 45 | 34 | 60 |
| 3 | LDU Quito | 33 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 36 | 27 | 53 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 33 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 53 | 31 | 52 |
| 5 | SD Aucas | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 33 | 51 |
| 6 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 32 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 34 | 28 | 45 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Independiente del Valle | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
|---|---|---|
| Macara | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| SD Aucas | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Club Atletico Libertad | 3-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Barcelona Guayaquil | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Delfin SC | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| LDU Quito | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente del Valle (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente del Valle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 10/10 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/09 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 03/09 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 02/08 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 11/10 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 21/09 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 15/09 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 03/09 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 29/08 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 18/08 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 10/08 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente del Valle win (57%). Probabilities: Independiente del Valle 57%, draw 25%, Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 19%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?
The model expects 2.89 goals (Independiente del Valle 1.88 · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1.01), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.