Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 31/10, 20:00

Prediction: Emelec vs Leones FC

Team pages: Emelec · Leones FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Emelec1.43

Leones FC0.92

1X2

48% 29% 23%

Emelec Draw Leones FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Emelec 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWDWLLLWL

Leones FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWDLDLLW

Head-to-head

Emelec 2–1–1 Leones FC (4 last)

Leones FC1-3Emelec
Emelec2-1Leones FC
Leones FC2-0Emelec
Leones FC0-0Emelec

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Emelec 1478 · Leones FC 1482

	Emelec	Draw	Leones FC
Our model	48%	29%	23%
Market	48%	29%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Emelec: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Emelec	Leones FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5	1.6 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.20

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 1.95▼	Bet365 1.95
X	3.00 → 3.20▲	Pinn 3.31 ★
2	3.30 → 4.00▲	Pinn 4.13

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:20 +5’	2.25	3.00	3.30
12:45 +8’	1.95▼	3.20▲	4.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:43 +42’	1.92	3.39	3.96
06:22 +51’	1.92	3.37▼	3.99▲
23:09 +13’	1.96▲	3.30▼	3.92▼
21:28 +15’	1.97▲	3.29▼	3.90▼
21:54 +48’	1.98▲	3.31▲	3.92▲
00:09 +15’	1.93▼	3.31	4.13▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Emelec 2–1–1 Leones FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/10/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Leones FC	1-3 HT 0-0	Emelec
31/08/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Emelec	2-1 HT 1-1	Leones FC
04/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Leones FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Emelec
08/10/25 Ecuador Cup	Leones FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Emelec

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Qualifying Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico Libertad	34	14	8	12	43	39	50
2	Guayaquil City	34	12	10	12	38	43	46
3	Leones FC	34	11	10	13	37	40	43
4	Emelec	34	11	9	14	31	41	42

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Emelec	Leones FC
Guayaquil City	0-1 L	1-1 D
Club Atletico Libertad	1-2 L	4-1 W
Manta FC	1-0 W	2-0 W
Tecnico Universitario	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Leones FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Emelec

WLWDWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
18/10	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	3-1	8	3	W
10/10	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-3	3	4	L
20/09	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	7	7	L
13/09	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
08/09	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	9	W
04/09	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
31/08	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
24/08	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
16/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-1	4	2	W

Leones FC

WLLWDLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	4-1	5	3	W
18/10	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-3	6	3	L
09/10	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-3	7	2	L
19/09	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	8	D
13/09	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
08/09	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
03/09	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
31/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
22/08	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-3	4	5	L
15/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Emelec vs Leones FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Emelec win (48%). Probabilities: Emelec 48%, draw 29%, Leones FC 23%.

How many goals are expected in Emelec vs Leones FC?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Emelec 1.43 · Leones FC 0.92), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Emelec vs Leones FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.