Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 25/10, 17:30

Prediction: Leones FC vs Club Atletico Libertad

Team pages: Leones FC · Club Atletico Libertad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Leones FC1.59

Club Atletico Libertad1

1X2

50% 28% 23%

Leones FC Draw Club Atletico Libertad

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Leones FC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDLDLL

Club Atletico Libertad 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLDWLWWW

Head-to-head

Leones FC 1–1–1 Club Atletico Libertad (3 last)

Club Atletico Libertad3-0Leones FC
Club Atletico Libertad1-3Leones FC
Leones FC1-1Club Atletico Libertad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leones FC 1457 · Club Atletico Libertad 1540

	Leones FC	Draw	Club Atletico Libertad
Our model	50%	28%	23%
Market	49%	28%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Atletico Libertad (rating 1457 vs 1540).
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leones FC	Club Atletico Libertad
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.7	1.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.7	1.5 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.30

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 15:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.90▼	Pinn 2.07 ★
X	3.25 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.31
2	4.10 → 4.20▲	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +4’	1.91	3.25	4.10
09:12 +2’	2.10▲	3.20▼	3.60▼
21:29 +5’	2.05▼	3.20	3.75▲
19:31 +7’	1.90▼	3.40▲	4.20▲
15:32 +5’	1.90	3.30▼	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:31 +282’	1.95	3.47	3.73
10:37 +38’	1.89▼	3.54▲	3.89▲
19:31 +13’	2.02▲	3.34▼	3.67▼
20:11 +51’	2.06▲	3.34	3.54▼
22:42 +16’	2.07▲	3.31▼	3.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leones FC 1–1–1 Club Atletico Libertad

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/10/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	3-0 HT 1-0	Leones FC
04/07/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	1-3 HT 1-2	Leones FC
28/02/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Leones FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Club Atletico Libertad

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Qualifying Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico Libertad	33	14	8	11	42	35	50
2	Guayaquil City	33	11	10	12	37	43	43
3	Emelec	33	11	9	13	31	40	42
4	Leones FC	33	10	10	13	33	39	40

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leones FC	Club Atletico Libertad
Emelec	1-3 L	2-1 W
Guayaquil City	1-1 D	4-0 W
Independiente del Valle	2-3 L	2-3 L
SD Aucas	0-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Club Atletico Libertad (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leones FC

LWLLWDLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-3	6	3	L
09/10	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-3	7	2	L
19/09	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	8	D
13/09	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
08/09	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
03/09	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
31/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
22/08	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-3	4	5	L
15/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
08/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-3	6	3	L

Club Atletico Libertad

WDWLDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
09/10	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
20/09	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	8	7	W
14/09	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
07/09	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
04/09	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
30/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
25/08	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
15/08	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-2	3	3	D
10/08	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-1	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leones FC vs Club Atletico Libertad?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leones FC win (50%). Probabilities: Leones FC 50%, draw 28%, Club Atletico Libertad 23%.

How many goals are expected in Leones FC vs Club Atletico Libertad?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Leones FC 1.59 · Club Atletico Libertad 1), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Leones FC vs Club Atletico Libertad?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.