Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 25/10, 20:00

Prediction: Emelec vs Guayaquil City

Team pages: Emelec · Guayaquil City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Emelec1.82

Guayaquil City0.98

1X2

56% 25% 19%

Emelec Draw Guayaquil City

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Emelec 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWDWLLLW

Guayaquil City 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWWLLWDWL

Head-to-head

Emelec 0–4–2 Guayaquil City (6 last)

Guayaquil City3-2Emelec
Guayaquil City0-0Emelec
Emelec1-3Guayaquil City
Guayaquil City0-0Emelec
Guayaquil City0-0Emelec
Emelec0-0Guayaquil City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Emelec 1488 · Guayaquil City 1515

	Emelec	Draw	Guayaquil City
Our model	56%	25%	19%
Market	56%	26%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Guayaquil City: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Emelec	Guayaquil City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.6	1.4 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.60

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 15:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.67▼	Pinn 1.74 ★
X	3.25 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	4.50 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:24	1.80	3.25	4.50
01:16 +3’	1.75▼	3.30▲	4.75▲
19:35 +4’	1.67▼	3.50▲	5.00▲
15:37 +2’	1.67	3.60▲	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:14 +70’	1.63	3.62	5.42
13:09 +16’	1.69▲	3.52▼	5.09▼
13:47 +46’	1.74▲	3.49▼	4.77▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Emelec 0–4–2 Guayaquil City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/10/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Guayaquil City	3-2 HT 0-2	Emelec
10/08/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Guayaquil City	0-0 HT 0-0	Emelec
18/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Emelec	1-3 HT 1-1	Guayaquil City
23/10/25 Ecuador Cup	Guayaquil City	0-0 HT 0-0	Emelec
04/11/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Guayaquil City	0-0 HT 0-0	Emelec
30/05/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Emelec	0-0 HT 0-0	Guayaquil City

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Qualifying Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico Libertad	33	14	8	11	42	35	50
2	Guayaquil City	33	11	10	12	37	43	43
3	Emelec	33	11	9	13	31	40	42
4	Leones FC	33	10	10	13	33	39	40

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Emelec	Guayaquil City
Leones FC	3-1 W	1-1 D
Club Atletico Libertad	1-2 L	0-4 L
LDU Quito	0-2 L	2-1 W
Tecnico Universitario	2-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Emelec (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Emelec

DWLWDWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	3-1	8	3	W
10/10	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-3	3	4	L
20/09	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	7	7	L
13/09	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
08/09	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	9	W
04/09	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
31/08	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
24/08	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
16/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-1	4	2	W
10/08	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	1	1	D

Guayaquil City

DDWWLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-4	3	3	L
10/10	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	3-2	5	4	W
19/09	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	3	8	D
12/09	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-1	4	7	W
08/09	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-2	3-4	1	4	L
02/09	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
29/08	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	3-2	6	6	W
15/08	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	2-2	1	3	D
10/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Emelec vs Guayaquil City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Emelec win (56%). Probabilities: Emelec 56%, draw 25%, Guayaquil City 19%.

How many goals are expected in Emelec vs Guayaquil City?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Emelec 1.82 · Guayaquil City 0.98), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Emelec vs Guayaquil City?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.