Football · England Northern Premier League · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Gainsborough vs Curzon Ashton

Team pages: Gainsborough · Curzon Ashton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

Gainsborough1.94

Curzon Ashton1.45

1X2

48% 24% 28%

Gainsborough Draw Curzon Ashton

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Gainsborough 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Curzon Ashton 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Gainsborough 2–4 Curzon Ashton (6 last)

Curzon Ashton2-0Gainsborough
Gainsborough1-0Curzon Ashton
Gainsborough0-1Curzon Ashton
Curzon Ashton1-2Gainsborough
Gainsborough0-2Curzon Ashton
Curzon Ashton3-0Gainsborough

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gainsborough 1559 · Curzon Ashton 1530

	Gainsborough	Draw	Curzon Ashton
Our model	48%	24%	28%
Market	48%	24%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Curzon Ashton: 4-0-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gainsborough	Curzon Ashton
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.4	2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.4	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	57/29/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	1.6 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.80

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:16 +10’	1.85	3.80	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gainsborough 2–0–4 Curzon Ashton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/18 England National League North	Curzon Ashton	2-0 HT 1-0	Gainsborough
28/10/17 England National League North	Gainsborough	1-0 HT 0-0	Curzon Ashton
25/02/17 England National League North	Gainsborough	0-1 HT 0-1	Curzon Ashton
29/10/16 England National League North	Curzon Ashton	1-2 HT 1-1	Gainsborough
08/03/16 England National League North	Gainsborough	0-2 HT 0-2	Curzon Ashton
31/10/15 England National League North	Curzon Ashton	3-0 HT 1-0	Gainsborough

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	15	10	4	1	33	13	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	14	9	3	2	31	9	30
3	Guiseley	13	9	1	3	27	12	28
4	Gainsborough	14	9	1	4	31	17	28
5	Avro FC	14	9	1	4	37	27	28
6	Workington	15	7	3	5	26	25	24
7	Warrington Rylands	14	7	2	5	25	21	23
7	Warrington Town	14	6	5	3	25	21	23
9	Curzon Ashton	13	7	1	5	24	17	22
10	Alfreton Town	15	6	2	7	21	17	20
11	Lancaster City	16	6	2	8	20	29	20
12	Bury	11	6	1	4	22	11	19
13	Whitby	14	6	1	7	20	33	19
14	Emley AFC	15	4	5	6	16	26	17
15	Hyde Utd	15	4	3	8	15	29	15
16	Leek Town	13	3	5	5	26	26	14
17	Ashton Utd	14	3	5	6	17	18	14
18	Quorn	13	3	5	5	23	29	14
19	Stockton Town	15	3	3	9	18	28	12
20	Bamber Bridge	14	2	4	8	17	34	10
21	Ilkeston	15	3	1	11	10	34	10
22	FC United of Manchester	12	1	4	7	15	23	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gainsborough	Curzon Ashton
Warrington Town	2-1 W	4-0 W
Hyde Utd	4-0 W	2-0 W
Whitby	6-2 W	0-1 L
Cleethorpes Town	0-3 L	3-1 W
Ashton Utd	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Curzon Ashton (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gainsborough

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-1	5	0	W
17/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-0	4-0	5	2	W
13/10	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	1-1	3-1	4	1	W
10/10	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
06/10	Whitby England Northern Premier League	3-0	6-2	10	0	W
12/09	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
31/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-3	3	2	L
28/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-1	0	6	W
25/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	7	0	D
22/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L

Curzon Ashton

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
13/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-5	3	3	L
10/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
06/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	3-0	3-1	2	2	W
12/09	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	3	0	W
31/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-0	5	5	W
28/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-1	1	2	W
25/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	4-0	2	3	W
22/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
18/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gainsborough vs Curzon Ashton?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gainsborough win (48%). Probabilities: Gainsborough 48%, draw 24%, Curzon Ashton 28%.

How many goals are expected in Gainsborough vs Curzon Ashton?

The model expects 3.39 goals (Gainsborough 1.94 · Curzon Ashton 1.45), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gainsborough vs Curzon Ashton?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.