Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: St Albans vs Burgess Hill Town

Team pages: St Albans · Burgess Hill Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.74Total

St Albans2.3

Burgess Hill Town1.43

1X2

56% 22% 22%

St Albans Draw Burgess Hill Town

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

St Albans 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLLWDWDWW

Burgess Hill Town 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWWDWLWD

Head-to-head

St Albans 1–1 Burgess Hill Town (2 last)

Burgess Hill Town0-1St Albans
St Albans3-4Burgess Hill Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St Albans 1568 · Burgess Hill Town 1545

	St Albans	Draw	Burgess Hill Town
Our model	56%	21%	23%
Market	56%	22%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.74 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St Albans	Burgess Hill Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.4	2.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0	1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	100/0/0%	25/50/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5	2.5 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.00

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:26 +13’	1.61	4.00	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · St Albans 1–0–1 Burgess Hill Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 England Isthmian Premier Division	Burgess Hill Town	0-1	St Albans
25/11/25 England Isthmian Premier Division	St Albans	3-4	Burgess Hill Town

Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	12	9	1	2	33	16	28
2	Welling	13	9	0	4	26	15	27
3	Lewes	13	8	2	3	20	14	26
4	Dartford	13	8	0	5	19	17	24
5	Ramsgate	13	7	1	5	29	17	22
6	Eastbourne Borough	11	7	1	3	21	11	22
7	Carshalton Ath	15	7	1	7	23	28	22
8	Chatham Town	12	7	0	5	26	16	21
9	Burgess Hill Town	12	5	5	2	23	17	20
10	Wingate & Finchley	12	6	2	4	24	23	20
11	Dulwich	13	5	3	5	21	21	18
12	St Albans	9	5	2	2	18	13	17
13	Leatherhead	10	4	3	3	18	17	15
14	AFC Whyteleafe	14	4	3	7	22	25	15
15	Cheshunt	13	3	6	4	12	18	15
16	Aveley	13	4	2	7	20	21	14
17	Maldon Tiptree FC	15	4	2	9	19	36	14
18	Cray Wanderers	9	3	3	3	19	14	12
19	Brentwood Town	11	4	0	7	18	19	12
20	Three Bridges	13	2	3	8	23	36	9
21	Stanway Rovers	13	2	1	10	12	32	7
22	Whitehawk	13	1	3	9	12	32	6

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

St Albans

WWLLWDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
26/09	Bury Town England FA Trophy	–	4-1	–	–	W
15/09	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	3-3	6	3	D
12/09	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-0	–	–	W
31/08	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
29/08	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-1	–	–	W
22/08	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-4	–	–	L
15/08	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
11/08	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
08/08	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-1	–	–	W

Burgess Hill Town

WDDWWDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Erith Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-3	–	–	D
21/10	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	2-2	3-2	5	3	W
17/10	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	2-4	3	6	L
13/10	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
10/10	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-1	–	–	W
26/09	Winslow Utd England Isthmian Premier Division	–	6-2	–	–	W
12/09	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
31/08	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
28/08	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	2-1	4	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St Albans vs Burgess Hill Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a St Albans win (56%). Probabilities: St Albans 56%, draw 22%, Burgess Hill Town 22%.

How many goals are expected in St Albans vs Burgess Hill Town?

The model expects 3.74 goals (St Albans 2.3 · Burgess Hill Town 1.43), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in St Albans vs Burgess Hill Town?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.