Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Leatherhead vs Stanway Rovers

Team pages: Leatherhead · Stanway Rovers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Leatherhead2.09

Stanway Rovers1.1

1X2

59% 22% 19%

Leatherhead Draw Stanway Rovers

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Leatherhead 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Stanway Rovers 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leatherhead 1486 · Stanway Rovers 1417

	Leatherhead	Draw	Stanway Rovers
Our model	59%	23%	18%
Market	59%	22%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leatherhead (rating 1486 vs 1417).
High corners: 11 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leatherhead	Stanway Rovers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	1 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.5	2 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5	4.5 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.5 / 0.5	2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.10

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:30 +3’	1.50	4.10	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	13	10	1	2	37	16	31
2	Welling	14	10	0	4	27	15	30
3	Lewes	13	8	2	3	20	14	26
4	Eastbourne Borough	12	8	1	3	23	12	25
5	Dartford	13	8	0	5	19	17	24
6	Ramsgate	13	7	1	5	29	17	22
7	Carshalton Ath	15	7	1	7	23	28	22
8	Chatham Town	13	7	0	6	26	20	21
9	Dulwich	14	6	3	5	23	22	21
10	St Albans	10	6	2	2	21	14	20
11	Burgess Hill Town	13	5	5	3	24	20	20
12	Wingate & Finchley	12	6	2	4	24	23	20
13	Brentwood Town	12	5	0	7	22	21	15
14	Leatherhead	11	4	3	4	18	18	15
15	AFC Whyteleafe	14	4	3	7	22	25	15
16	Cheshunt	14	3	6	5	14	22	15
17	Aveley	13	4	2	7	20	21	14
18	Maldon Tiptree FC	16	4	2	10	20	38	14
19	Cray Wanderers	9	3	3	3	19	14	12
20	Three Bridges	13	2	3	8	23	36	9
21	Stanway Rovers	13	2	1	10	12	32	7
22	Whitehawk	14	1	3	10	13	34	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leatherhead	Stanway Rovers
Cheshunt	1-2 L	3-0 W
Ramsgate	2-2 D	0-2 L
Three Bridges	3-3 D	1-3 L
AFC Whyteleafe	0-0 D	0-4 L
Aveley	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Leatherhead (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leatherhead

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
10/10	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
26/09	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
22/09	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-3	–	–	D
15/09	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
12/09	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
31/08	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-3	–	–	L
29/08	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-4	–	–	L
15/08	Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D

Stanway Rovers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
20/10	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
17/10	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-4	–	–	L
10/10	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-3	–	–	L
06/10	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	1-2	8	3	L
26/09	Faversham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
15/09	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	3-1	3-2	4	2	W
12/09	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-4	–	–	L
31/08	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
29/08	St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leatherhead vs Stanway Rovers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leatherhead win (59%). Probabilities: Leatherhead 59%, draw 22%, Stanway Rovers 19%.

How many goals are expected in Leatherhead vs Stanway Rovers?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Leatherhead 2.09 · Stanway Rovers 1.1), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Leatherhead vs Stanway Rovers?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.