Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 17/10, 14:30

Prediction: FK Zalgiris Vilnius II vs FK Atmosfera

Team pages: FK Zalgiris Vilnius II · FK Atmosfera

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II1.37

FK Atmosfera1.38

1X2

37% 26% 37%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Draw FK Atmosfera

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWWLW

FK Atmosfera 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLDLWLDD

Head-to-head

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1–3–2 FK Atmosfera (6 last)

FK Atmosfera2-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Atmosfera5-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II2-1FK Atmosfera
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II4-4FK Atmosfera
FK Atmosfera1-1FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Atmosfera3-3FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1574 · FK Atmosfera 1489

	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	Draw	FK Atmosfera
Our model	36%	28%	36%
Market	37%	25%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Zalgiris Vilnius II (rating 1574 vs 1489).
H2H favours FK Atmosfera: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	FK Atmosfera
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.8	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.4	2.5 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.60

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.40▲	Pinn 2.59 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.55 → 2.38▼	Pinn 2.40

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:25 +6’	2.25	3.60	2.55
14:08 +1’	2.40▲	3.60	2.38▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:41 +28’	2.52	3.19	2.41
14:03 +6’	2.59▲	3.24▲	2.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1–3–2 FK Atmosfera

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
23/08/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	5-0 HT 2-0	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
26/04/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	2-1 HT 1-1	FK Atmosfera
27/08/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	4-4 HT 2-2	FK Atmosfera
15/04/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
13/08/21 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	3-3 HT 2-2	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	27	21	4	2	48	13	67
2	FK Minija	26	22	1	3	70	16	67
3	FK BE1	26	17	3	6	47	27	54
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	27	14	4	9	42	36	46
5	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	27	14	2	11	33	33	44
6	DFK Dainava	27	12	8	7	40	28	44
7	FK Tauras	26	13	5	8	47	35	44
8	BFA Vilnius	27	13	4	10	40	40	43
9	FK Atmosfera	26	9	7	10	40	35	34
10	Lietava Jonava	27	8	6	13	31	35	30
11	FK Garliava	26	8	5	13	31	28	29
12	FK Transinvest II	27	7	4	16	32	59	25
13	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	27	7	2	18	26	48	23
14	FC Hegelmann II	27	7	2	18	32	62	23
15	FK Siauliai II	26	4	6	16	30	59	18
16	FK Ekranas	27	4	3	20	27	62	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	FK Atmosfera
BFA Vilnius	2-1 W	1-1 D
FK Babrungas	0-1 L	2-3 L
FK Tauras	1-0 W	3-1 W
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	1-0 W	1-3 L
DFK Dainava	1-0 W	1-1 D
FK Transinvest II	4-3 W	0-2 L
FK Siauliai II	4-1 W	1-1 D
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FK Zalgiris Vilnius II (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

WDWWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	7	8	W
20/09	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	10	2	L
12/09	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
07/09	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	7	2	W
28/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
25/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-1	4-3	5	7	W
14/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-1	6	3	W
10/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-1	6	2	W
01/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
28/07	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	2	3	W

FK Atmosfera

WLDLDLWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
19/09	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	10	5	D
11/09	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-3	2-3	2	3	L
05/09	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	3	6	W
29/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
22/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
14/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
08/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
01/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-3	5	3	L
25/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-1	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Zalgiris Vilnius II vs FK Atmosfera?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Zalgiris Vilnius II win (37%). Probabilities: FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 37%, draw 26%, FK Atmosfera 37%.

How many goals are expected in FK Zalgiris Vilnius II vs FK Atmosfera?

The model expects 2.75 goals (FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1.37 · FK Atmosfera 1.38), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Zalgiris Vilnius II vs FK Atmosfera?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.