Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 24/10, 14:00

Prediction: BFA Vilnius vs FK Minija

Team pages: BFA Vilnius · FK Minija

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

BFA Vilnius1.14

FK Minija2.05

1X2

20% 23% 57%

BFA Vilnius Draw FK Minija

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

BFA Vilnius 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWDWWDLL

FK Minija 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWWWL

Head-to-head

BFA Vilnius 3–2–1 FK Minija (6 last)

FK Minija3-0BFA Vilnius
FK Minija1-1BFA Vilnius
BFA Vilnius1-0FK Minija
BFA Vilnius1-1FK Minija
FK Minija0-1BFA Vilnius
BFA Vilnius2-0FK Minija

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BFA Vilnius 1499 · FK Minija 1581

	BFA Vilnius	Draw	FK Minija
Our model	20%	23%	57%
Market	20%	23%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Minija (rating 1499 vs 1581).
H2H favours BFA Vilnius: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	BFA Vilnius	FK Minija
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	2.9 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.3	5 / 8.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.50

X3.90

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.85

2 (-1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:08 +11’	4.50	3.90	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · BFA Vilnius 3–2–1 FK Minija

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	3-0 HT 2-0	BFA Vilnius
30/08/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	1-1 HT 0-1	BFA Vilnius
03/05/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Minija
17/08/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Minija
23/03/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	0-1 HT 0-0	BFA Vilnius
28/10/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Minija

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	27	21	4	2	48	13	67
2	FK Minija	26	22	1	3	70	16	67
3	FK BE1	26	17	3	6	47	27	54
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	27	14	4	9	42	36	46
5	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	27	14	2	11	33	33	44
6	DFK Dainava	27	12	8	7	40	28	44
7	FK Tauras	26	13	5	8	47	35	44
8	BFA Vilnius	27	13	4	10	40	40	43
9	FK Atmosfera	26	9	7	10	40	35	34
10	FK Garliava	27	9	5	13	34	30	32
11	Lietava Jonava	27	8	6	13	31	35	30
12	FK Transinvest II	27	7	4	16	32	59	25
13	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	27	7	2	18	26	48	23
14	FC Hegelmann II	27	7	2	18	32	62	23
15	FK Siauliai II	27	4	6	17	32	62	18
16	FK Ekranas	27	4	3	20	27	62	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BFA Vilnius	FK Minija
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	1-2 L	0-1 L
FK Babrungas	2-1 W	2-3 L
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	2-0 W	2-1 W
DFK Dainava	0-0 D	3-0 W
FK Transinvest II	4-2 W	3-0 W
FK Siauliai II	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Minija (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

BFA Vilnius

LWDWDWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	0-3	5	5	L
09/10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	8	8	L
19/09	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
12/09	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	3-2	4	3	W
04/09	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
28/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-2	4	3	D
22/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
15/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
08/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	4-2	8	5	W
02/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	2	7	L

FK Minija

LWWWWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-3	4	7	L
02/10	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	5-0	9	3	W
19/09	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
12/09	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	12	3	W
05/09	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	8	4	W
28/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	9	8	W
14/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	7	3	W
08/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
31/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-0	9	1	W
28/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	14	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BFA Vilnius vs FK Minija?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Minija win (57%). Probabilities: BFA Vilnius 20%, draw 23%, FK Minija 57%.

How many goals are expected in BFA Vilnius vs FK Minija?

The model expects 3.2 goals (BFA Vilnius 1.14 · FK Minija 2.05), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in BFA Vilnius vs FK Minija?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.