Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 25/10, 14:00

Prediction: DFK Dainava vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Team pages: DFK Dainava · FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

DFK Dainava2.07

FK Kauno Zalgiris II1.02

1X2

61% 21% 17%

DFK Dainava Draw FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

DFK Dainava 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLDLWLDW

FK Kauno Zalgiris II 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWWLDL

Head-to-head

DFK Dainava 3–0 FK Kauno Zalgiris II (3 last)

FK Kauno Zalgiris II0-2DFK Dainava
FK Kauno Zalgiris II1-3DFK Dainava
FK Kauno Zalgiris II0-3DFK Dainava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · DFK Dainava 1513 · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1467

	DFK Dainava	Draw	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
Our model	61%	22%	17%
Market	62%	21%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours DFK Dainava (rating 1513 vs 1467).
H2H favours DFK Dainava: 3-0-0.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	DFK Dainava	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.1	1.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.3	3.4 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.33

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:27 +17’	1.44	4.33	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · DFK Dainava 3–0–0 FK Kauno Zalgiris II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/06/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	0-2 HT 0-0	DFK Dainava
03/03/26 Europe Friendlies	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	1-3 HT 0-2	DFK Dainava
29/08/20 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	0-3 HT 0-2	DFK Dainava

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	27	21	4	2	48	13	67
2	FK Minija	26	22	1	3	70	16	67
3	FK BE1	26	17	3	6	47	27	54
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	27	14	4	9	42	36	46
5	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	27	14	2	11	33	33	44
6	DFK Dainava	27	12	8	7	40	28	44
7	FK Tauras	26	13	5	8	47	35	44
8	BFA Vilnius	27	13	4	10	40	40	43
9	FK Atmosfera	26	9	7	10	40	35	34
10	FK Garliava	27	9	5	13	34	30	32
11	Lietava Jonava	27	8	6	13	31	35	30
12	FK Transinvest II	27	7	4	16	32	59	25
13	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	27	7	2	18	26	48	23
14	FC Hegelmann II	27	7	2	18	32	62	23
15	FK Siauliai II	27	4	6	17	32	62	18
16	FK Ekranas	27	4	3	20	27	62	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	DFK Dainava	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Ekranas	3-1 W	2-1 W
FK BE1	2-2 D	0-1 L
FK Garliava	1-2 L	3-2 W
FC Hegelmann II	1-0 W	3-0 W
FK Minija	0-3 L	0-5 L
Lietava Jonava	0-0 D	2-1 W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	0-1 L	1-2 L
FK Atmosfera	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 3 L	5 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Kauno Zalgiris II (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

DFK Dainava

WDDLDLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-1	5	3	W
09/10	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-2	1	2	D
02/10	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	8	7	L
18/09	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
12/09	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	7	3	L
04/09	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
28/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
22/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
15/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
08/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	1	3	W

FK Kauno Zalgiris II

WLWWLWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
09/10	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	3-3	8	3	D
02/10	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	0-5	4	3	L
19/09	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-2	4	4	W
12/09	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	8	4	W
04/09	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
29/08	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	3-0	12	3	W
14/08	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-1	9	3	W
10/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-2	2	2	L
01/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in DFK Dainava vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a DFK Dainava win (61%). Probabilities: DFK Dainava 61%, draw 21%, FK Kauno Zalgiris II 17%.

How many goals are expected in DFK Dainava vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II?

The model expects 3.09 goals (DFK Dainava 2.07 · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1.02), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in DFK Dainava vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.