Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 24/10, 14:00

Prediction: FK Atmosfera vs Lietava Jonava

Team pages: FK Atmosfera · Lietava Jonava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

FK Atmosfera1.5

Lietava Jonava1.13

1X2

45% 27% 28%

FK Atmosfera Draw Lietava Jonava

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Atmosfera 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDLDLWLDDW

Lietava Jonava 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLWDLLLW

Head-to-head

FK Atmosfera 2–1–3 Lietava Jonava (6 last)

Lietava Jonava1-1FK Atmosfera
Lietava Jonava0-2FK Atmosfera
FK Atmosfera0-1Lietava Jonava
Lietava Jonava0-2FK Atmosfera
FK Atmosfera0-3Lietava Jonava
FK Atmosfera2-5Lietava Jonava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Atmosfera 1504 · Lietava Jonava 1458

	FK Atmosfera	Draw	Lietava Jonava
Our model	44%	28%	27%
Market	46%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Atmosfera (rating 1504 vs 1458).
H2H favours Lietava Jonava: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Atmosfera	Lietava Jonava
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.3	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.50

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:13 +4’	1.95	3.50	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Atmosfera 2–1–3 Lietava Jonava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/06/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Lietava Jonava	1-1 HT 1-1	FK Atmosfera
25/10/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Lietava Jonava	0-2 HT 0-1	FK Atmosfera
17/06/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	0-1 HT 0-0	Lietava Jonava
22/05/24 Lithuania Cup	Lietava Jonava	0-2 HT 0-0	FK Atmosfera
07/05/22 Lithuania Cup	FK Atmosfera	0-3 HT 0-1	Lietava Jonava
10/09/21 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	2-5 HT 2-2	Lietava Jonava

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	27	21	4	2	48	13	67
2	FK Minija	26	22	1	3	70	16	67
3	FK BE1	26	17	3	6	47	27	54
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	27	14	4	9	42	36	46
5	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	27	14	2	11	33	33	44
6	DFK Dainava	27	12	8	7	40	28	44
7	FK Tauras	26	13	5	8	47	35	44
8	BFA Vilnius	27	13	4	10	40	40	43
9	FK Atmosfera	26	9	7	10	40	35	34
10	FK Garliava	27	9	5	13	34	30	32
11	Lietava Jonava	27	8	6	13	31	35	30
12	FK Transinvest II	27	7	4	16	32	59	25
13	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	27	7	2	18	26	48	23
14	FC Hegelmann II	27	7	2	18	32	62	23
15	FK Siauliai II	27	4	6	17	32	62	18
16	FK Ekranas	27	4	3	20	27	62	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Atmosfera	Lietava Jonava
BFA Vilnius	1-1 D	3-0 W
FK Babrungas	2-3 L	0-2 L
FK Tauras	3-1 W	2-3 L
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	1-3 L	0-2 L
DFK Dainava	1-1 D	0-0 D
FK Transinvest II	0-2 L	2-1 W
FK Siauliai II	1-1 D	0-1 L
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	1-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Atmosfera

LDLDLWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-2	4	2	W
10/10	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
19/09	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	10	5	D
11/09	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-3	2-3	2	3	L
05/09	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	3	6	W
29/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
22/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
14/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
08/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
01/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-3	5	3	L

Lietava Jonava

WLLLWDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	3-0	3	5	W
10/10	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
18/09	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-3	5	3	L
11/09	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
04/09	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
29/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
21/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
14/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
07/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
31/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Atmosfera vs Lietava Jonava?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Atmosfera win (45%). Probabilities: FK Atmosfera 45%, draw 27%, Lietava Jonava 28%.

How many goals are expected in FK Atmosfera vs Lietava Jonava?

The model expects 2.63 goals (FK Atmosfera 1.5 · Lietava Jonava 1.13), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Atmosfera vs Lietava Jonava?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.