Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 25/10, 13:00

Prediction: FK Babrungas vs FC Hegelmann II

Team pages: FK Babrungas · FC Hegelmann II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.58Total

FK Babrungas2.48

FC Hegelmann II1.1

1X2

67% 18% 15%

FK Babrungas Draw FC Hegelmann II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Babrungas 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDWLWWWW

FC Hegelmann II 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWLLWD

Head-to-head

FK Babrungas 4–1 FC Hegelmann II (5 last)

FC Hegelmann II0-1FK Babrungas
FK Babrungas4-1FC Hegelmann II
FC Hegelmann II4-2FK Babrungas
FK Babrungas2-1FC Hegelmann II
FC Hegelmann II0-4FK Babrungas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Babrungas 1601 · FC Hegelmann II 1444

	FK Babrungas	Draw	FC Hegelmann II
Our model	67%	19%	14%
Market	67%	18%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.58 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Babrungas (rating 1601 vs 1444).
H2H favours FK Babrungas: 4-0-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Babrungas	FC Hegelmann II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.9	1.6 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.2	3.3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:23 +20’	1.33	5.00	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Babrungas 4–0–1 FC Hegelmann II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/06/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Babrungas
25/10/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	4-1 HT 3-1	FC Hegelmann II
17/06/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	4-2 HT 3-0	FK Babrungas
26/10/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Hegelmann II
08/06/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	0-4 HT 0-2	FK Babrungas

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	27	21	4	2	48	13	67
2	FK Minija	26	22	1	3	70	16	67
3	FK BE1	26	17	3	6	47	27	54
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	27	14	4	9	42	36	46
5	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	27	14	2	11	33	33	44
6	DFK Dainava	27	12	8	7	40	28	44
7	FK Tauras	26	13	5	8	47	35	44
8	BFA Vilnius	27	13	4	10	40	40	43
9	FK Atmosfera	26	9	7	10	40	35	34
10	FK Garliava	27	9	5	13	34	30	32
11	Lietava Jonava	27	8	6	13	31	35	30
12	FK Transinvest II	27	7	4	16	32	59	25
13	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	27	7	2	18	26	48	23
14	FC Hegelmann II	27	7	2	18	32	62	23
15	FK Siauliai II	27	4	6	17	32	62	18
16	FK Ekranas	27	4	3	20	27	62	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Babrungas	FC Hegelmann II
FK Minija	3-2 W	0-4 L
FK Atmosfera	3-2 W	1-4 L
FK Tauras	1-1 D	4-4 D
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	4-0 W	1-0 W
DFK Dainava	1-2 L	0-1 L
FK Transinvest II	1-0 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FK Babrungas (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Babrungas

WLWDWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	3-2	2	7	W
10/10	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
20/09	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
11/09	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-1	3-2	10	3	W
04/09	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
29/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
21/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
15/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	4-0	6	5	W
08/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	5	3	L
03/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	6	2	W

FC Hegelmann II

LLLWLWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	4-4	9	3	D
10/10	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
18/09	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	14	3	L
11/09	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	1-4	5	2	L
04/09	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	4-1	5-1	6	2	W
29/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-3	5	3	L
21/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-2	10	2	W
14/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
31/07	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-4	1	1	L
25/07	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-4	2	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Babrungas vs FC Hegelmann II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Babrungas win (67%). Probabilities: FK Babrungas 67%, draw 18%, FC Hegelmann II 15%.

How many goals are expected in FK Babrungas vs FC Hegelmann II?

The model expects 3.58 goals (FK Babrungas 2.48 · FC Hegelmann II 1.1), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Babrungas vs FC Hegelmann II?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.