Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 02/11, 00:15

Prediction: Motagua vs CD Marathon

Team pages: Motagua · CD Marathon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.12Total

Motagua1.19

CD Marathon0.94

1X2

42% 29% 29%

Motagua Draw CD Marathon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Motagua 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWDWLWWW

CD Marathon 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWLDWD

Head-to-head

Motagua 0–4–2 CD Marathon (6 last)

Motagua0-0CD Marathon
CD Marathon1-1Motagua
CD Marathon1-0Motagua
Motagua1-1CD Marathon
CD Marathon1-0Motagua
Motagua3-3CD Marathon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Motagua 1541 · CD Marathon 1549

	Motagua	Draw	CD Marathon
Our model	40%	32%	28%
Market	43%	27%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.12 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours CD Marathon: 2-4-0.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Motagua	CD Marathon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	1.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.8	2.6 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.30

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
03:34 +7’	2.10	3.30	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Motagua 0–4–2 CD Marathon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Motagua	0-0 HT 0-0	CD Marathon
22/05/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Marathon	1-1 HT 0-0	Motagua
10/04/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Marathon	1-0 HT 1-0	Motagua
16/02/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Motagua	1-1 HT 1-0	CD Marathon
25/10/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Marathon	1-0 HT 1-0	Motagua
18/08/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Motagua	3-3 HT 1-2	CD Marathon

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Olimpia	11	8	2	1	23	8	26
2	Real Espana	11	7	3	1	19	9	24
3	CD Marathon	11	6	4	1	18	9	22
4	Motagua	11	7	1	3	17	9	22
5	Atletico Choloma	11	4	1	6	12	12	13
6	Olancho FC	11	2	7	2	11	11	13
7	Estrella Roja	11	3	4	4	18	21	13
8	Lobos UPNFM	11	3	3	5	11	13	12
9	Genesis de Comayagua	11	3	2	6	12	12	11
10	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	11	2	5	4	10	18	11
11	CD Platense	11	2	2	7	11	25	8
12	Juticalpa	11	2	0	9	10	25	6

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Motagua	CD Marathon
Juticalpa	2-0 W	2-3 L
CD Platense	2-0 W	1-1 D
Atletico Choloma	2-1 W	1-0 W
Real Espana	0-1 L	1-1 D
Genesis de Comayagua	1-0 W	2-1 W
CA Independiente Siguatepeque	0-0 D	2-2 D
Olancho FC	2-1 W	2-1 W
Lobos UPNFM	4-1 W	0-0 D
CD Olimpia	1-3 L	1-0 W
Estrella Roja	0-2 L	5-0 W
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 3 L	5 W 4 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Motagua

LLWWDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	2-0	6	2	W
17/10	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
11/10	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	2-1	2-1	8	9	W
20/09	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
13/09	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
06/09	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
30/08	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-1	9	3	W
22/08	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	3-0	4-1	5	4	W
17/08	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-3	5	8	L
10/08	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-2	9	4	L

CD Marathon

DWDWWWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	2-1	2-2	5	4	D
16/10	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	2-1	3	5	W
11/10	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
21/09	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	2-2	2-3	3	9	L
14/09	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	8	14	W
06/09	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	3-0	5-0	5	1	W
29/08	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-1	3	1	W
23/08	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
16/08	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
08/08	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-1	12	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Motagua vs CD Marathon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Motagua win (42%). Probabilities: Motagua 42%, draw 29%, CD Marathon 29%.

How many goals are expected in Motagua vs CD Marathon?

The model expects 2.12 goals (Motagua 1.19 · CD Marathon 0.94), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Motagua vs CD Marathon?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.