Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 17/10, 19:30
Prediction: Union Saint Gilloise II vs Sporting Charleroi U23
Team pages: Union Saint Gilloise II · Sporting Charleroi U23
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.71Total
Union Saint Gilloise II1.63
Sporting Charleroi U231.07
1X2
Union Saint Gilloise II
Draw
Sporting Charleroi U23
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Union Saint Gilloise II
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Sporting Charleroi U23
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Union Saint Gilloise II
2–1–1
Sporting Charleroi U23
(4 last)
- Union Saint Gilloise II0-3Sporting Charleroi U23
- Sporting Charleroi U230-0Union Saint Gilloise II
- Union Saint Gilloise II4-1Sporting Charleroi U23
- Sporting Charleroi U230-2Union Saint Gilloise II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Union Saint Gilloise II 1561 · Sporting Charleroi U23 1488
| Union Saint Gilloise II | Draw | Sporting Charleroi U23 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market | 51% | 23% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Saint Gilloise II (rating 1561 vs 1488).
- H2H favours Union Saint Gilloise II: 2-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Union Saint Gilloise II | Sporting Charleroi U23 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.1 | 1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.8 | 1.5 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.4 | 3.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Saint Gilloise II 2–1–1 Sporting Charleroi U23
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Belgium First Amateur Division | Union Saint Gilloise II | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Sporting Charleroi U23 |
| 15/03/26 Belgium First Amateur Division | Sporting Charleroi U23 | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Union Saint Gilloise II |
| 13/12/25 Belgium First Amateur Division | Union Saint Gilloise II | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Sporting Charleroi U23 |
| 26/10/25 Belgium First Amateur Division | Sporting Charleroi U23 | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Union Saint Gilloise II |
Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RWD Molenbeek | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 19 |
| 2 | Union Rochefortoise | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 17 |
| 3 | RFC Meux | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 16 |
| 4 | Union Saint Gilloise II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 14 |
| 5 | Tubize | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 14 |
| 6 | RAEC Mons | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 15 | 11 |
| 7 | Standard Liege II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 10 |
| 8 | Sporting Charleroi U23 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 10 |
| 9 | ROC Charleroi | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 9 |
| 10 | RSC Habay | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 6 |
| 11 | RCS Onhaye | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 20 | 6 |
| 12 | FC Flenu | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 1 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Union Saint Gilloise II | Sporting Charleroi U23 |
|---|---|---|
| FC Flenu | 5-2 W | 2-2 D |
| RWD Molenbeek | 4-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Tubize | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Standard Liege II | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| ROC Charleroi | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| RSC Habay | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Union Rochefortoise | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 1 L | 0 W 4 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Union Saint Gilloise II (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Union Saint Gilloise II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | FC Flenu Belgium First Amateur Division |
3-0 | 5-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 03/10 | RWD Molenbeek Belgium First Amateur Division |
3-1 | 4-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 26/09 | Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 19/09 | Standard Liege II Belgium First Amateur Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | ROC Charleroi Belgium First Amateur Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 05/09 | RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 29/08 | RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division |
1-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 26/08 | Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 10/05 | RRC Stockay-Warfusee Belgium First Amateur Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Crossing Schaerbeek Belgium First Amateur Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
Sporting Charleroi U23
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | ROC Charleroi Belgium First Amateur Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 04/10 | RCS Onhaye Belgium First Amateur Division |
0-2 | 4-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 30/09 | RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | RWD Molenbeek Belgium First Amateur Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | FC Flenu Belgium First Amateur Division |
2-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 26/08 | Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | UR Namur Belgium First Amateur Division |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | Standard Liege II Belgium First Amateur Division |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Union Saint Gilloise II vs Sporting Charleroi U23?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Saint Gilloise II win (50%). Probabilities: Union Saint Gilloise II 50%, draw 25%, Sporting Charleroi U23 25%.
How many goals are expected in Union Saint Gilloise II vs Sporting Charleroi U23?
The model expects 2.71 goals (Union Saint Gilloise II 1.63 · Sporting Charleroi U23 1.07), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Union Saint Gilloise II vs Sporting Charleroi U23?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.