Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 24/10, 17:00

Prediction: KVC Houtvenne vs KFC Merelbeke

Team pages: KVC Houtvenne · KFC Merelbeke

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

KVC Houtvenne1.79

KFC Merelbeke1.32

1X2

48% 24% 28%

KVC Houtvenne Draw KFC Merelbeke

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

KVC Houtvenne 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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KFC Merelbeke 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

KVC Houtvenne 1–1 KFC Merelbeke (2 last)

KFC Merelbeke2-1KVC Houtvenne
KVC Houtvenne3-1KFC Merelbeke

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KVC Houtvenne 1542 · KFC Merelbeke 1493

	KVC Houtvenne	Draw	KFC Merelbeke
Our model	48%	25%	27%
Market	48%	24%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KVC Houtvenne (rating 1542 vs 1493).
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KVC Houtvenne	KFC Merelbeke
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.3	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.7	1.8 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.80

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.85▲	Pinn 1.96 ★
X	3.90 → 3.80▼	Bet365 3.80
2	3.60 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.33

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
07:06 +6’	1.73	3.90	3.60
10:01 +11’	1.85▲	3.80▼	3.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:26 +47’	1.96	3.55	3.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · KVC Houtvenne 1–0–1 KFC Merelbeke

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	KFC Merelbeke	2-1 HT 2-1	KVC Houtvenne
08/11/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	KVC Houtvenne	3-1 HT 1-1	KFC Merelbeke

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFC Meux	9	6	1	2	16	8	19
2	RWD Molenbeek	9	6	1	2	14	10	19
3	Union Rochefortoise	8	5	2	1	17	7	17
4	Union Saint Gilloise II	9	5	2	2	17	10	17
5	Tubize	9	4	2	3	11	11	14
6	Standard Liege II	9	4	1	4	13	7	13
7	ROC Charleroi	9	3	3	3	13	18	12
8	RAEC Mons	8	3	2	3	18	15	11
9	Sporting Charleroi U23	9	2	4	3	9	10	10
10	RSC Habay	8	1	3	4	7	12	6
11	RCS Onhaye	8	2	0	6	10	20	6
12	FC Flenu	9	0	1	8	10	27	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KVC Houtvenne	KFC Merelbeke
Royal Knokke	2-0 W	3-0 W
Hoogstraten VV	0-3 L	3-2 W
RFC Mandel Utd	2-1 W	0-2 L
Dessel Sport	5-0 W	1-1 D
Belisia Bilzen SV	4-3 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: KVC Houtvenne (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KVC Houtvenne

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
10/10	Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
03/10	Hoogstraten VV Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-3	6	5	L
30/09	RFC Mandel Utd Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	2-1	5	5	W
20/09	KVV Zelzate Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
11/09	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	5-0	2	4	W
06/09	Belisia Bilzen SV Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	4-3	1	6	W
29/08	OH Leuven II Belgium First Amateur Division	3-0	3-1	3	4	W
26/04	K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-4	–	–	L
19/04	Sporting Hasselt Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	3	3	L

KFC Merelbeke

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	3-0	6	4	W
11/10	RFC Mandel Utd Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-2	7	4	L
04/10	Tienen Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
30/09	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-1	2	1	D
20/09	KRC Harelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
13/09	Belisia Bilzen SV Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-1	9	6	L
06/09	Cercle Brugge Reserves Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	3-1	4	3	W
28/08	Hoogstraten VV Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	3-2	4	3	W
26/04	KVK Ninove Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-3	6	0	L
19/04	SK Roeselare Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-3	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KVC Houtvenne vs KFC Merelbeke?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KVC Houtvenne win (48%). Probabilities: KVC Houtvenne 48%, draw 24%, KFC Merelbeke 28%.

How many goals are expected in KVC Houtvenne vs KFC Merelbeke?

The model expects 3.11 goals (KVC Houtvenne 1.79 · KFC Merelbeke 1.32), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in KVC Houtvenne vs KFC Merelbeke?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.