Football · Iraq Stars League · 16/10, 19:30

Prediction: Diyala FC vs Naft Maysan

Team pages: Diyala FC · Naft Maysan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Diyala FC1.06

Naft Maysan1.35

1X2

29% 29% 42%

Diyala FC Draw Naft Maysan

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Diyala FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Naft Maysan 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Diyala FC 3–1–0 Naft Maysan (4 last)

Diyala FC1-0Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan1-1Diyala FC
Naft Maysan0-1Diyala FC
Diyala FC3-1Naft Maysan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Diyala FC 1498 · Naft Maysan 1478

	Diyala FC	Draw	Naft Maysan
Our model	28%	30%	42%
Market	29%	29%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Diyala FC: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Diyala FC	Naft Maysan
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	0.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.6	2.1 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.10

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 15:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 3.10▲	Bet365 3.10
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	4.50 → 2.10▼	Pinn 3.65 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:59 +8’	1.75	3.10	4.50
09:02 +2’	1.80▲	3.10	4.33▼
15:07 +18’	3.10▲	3.10	2.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:42 +23’	2.11	2.93	3.23
11:13 +65’	2.15▲	2.93	3.14▼
14:34 +51’	1.89▼	3.09▲	3.65▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Diyala FC 3–1–0 Naft Maysan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/04/26 Iraq Stars League	Diyala FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Naft Maysan
05/01/26 Iraq Stars League	Naft Maysan	1-1 HT 1-0	Diyala FC
21/04/25 Iraq Stars League	Naft Maysan	0-1 HT 0-0	Diyala FC
03/02/25 Iraq Stars League	Diyala FC	3-1 HT 3-1	Naft Maysan

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	9	7	2	0	17	7	23
2	Al Zawra'a	9	5	3	1	15	6	18
3	Erbil SC	9	5	3	1	13	4	18
4	Al Naft SC	9	5	3	1	11	5	18
5	Al Shorta SC	9	4	4	1	9	4	16
6	Newroz SC	9	4	3	2	11	5	15
7	Duhok	9	2	6	1	14	11	12
8	Al Minaa	9	3	3	3	10	10	12
9	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	9	2	5	2	14	12	11
10	Al Talaba	9	2	5	2	10	11	11
11	Al Jolan SC	9	2	5	2	8	9	11
12	Diyala FC	9	2	3	4	13	16	9
13	Zakho	9	2	3	4	7	12	9
14	Ghaz Al Shamal	9	1	5	3	4	7	8
15	Al Kahrabaa	9	1	5	3	6	10	8
16	Naft Maysan	9	1	5	3	7	12	8
17	Mosul FC	9	2	2	5	9	15	8
18	Al Karkh	9	2	1	6	12	17	7
19	Al Gharraf	9	1	3	5	4	12	6
20	Karbalaa FC	9	1	3	5	6	15	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Diyala FC	Naft Maysan
Al Naft SC	0-2 L	0-0 D
Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1-1 D	1-1 D
Al Gharraf	3-1 W	2-0 W
Erbil SC	0-2 L	1-1 D
Al Jolan SC	3-3 D	0-0 D
Al Talaba	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Naft Maysan (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Diyala FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
19/09	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
12/09	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	1-1	3-1	1	1	W
08/09	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	2	7	L
03/09	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	1-3	3-3	6	7	D
25/08	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-2	1	2	D
21/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-2	8	7	L
15/08	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
01/06	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	3	6	W

Naft Maysan

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
17/09	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	2-3	2-3	8	2	L
13/09	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
09/09	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
04/09	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
29/08	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	0	6	D
25/08	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-3	0-4	6	4	L
20/08	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
14/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
02/06	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Diyala FC vs Naft Maysan?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Naft Maysan win (42%). Probabilities: Diyala FC 29%, draw 29%, Naft Maysan 42%.

How many goals are expected in Diyala FC vs Naft Maysan?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Diyala FC 1.06 · Naft Maysan 1.35), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Diyala FC vs Naft Maysan?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.