Football · Iraq Stars League · 24/10, 16:30

Prediction: Newroz SC vs Diyala FC

Team pages: Newroz SC · Diyala FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Newroz SC1.6

Diyala FC0.8

1X2

55% 27% 18%

Newroz SC Draw Diyala FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Newroz SC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLLDWWWDWW

Diyala FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLDDLLWDLW

Head-to-head

Newroz SC 3–1–0 Diyala FC (4 last)

Diyala FC1-1Newroz SC
Newroz SC2-1Diyala FC
Diyala FC1-4Newroz SC
Newroz SC2-1Diyala FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Newroz SC 1553 · Diyala FC 1487

	Newroz SC	Draw	Diyala FC
Our model	55%	27%	18%
Market	56%	26%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newroz SC (rating 1553 vs 1487).
H2H favours Newroz SC: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Newroz SC	Diyala FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.4	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.3	1.3 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.40

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
04:14 +2’	1.61	3.40	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Newroz SC 3–1–0 Diyala FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Iraq Stars League	Diyala FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Newroz SC
31/01/26 Iraq Stars League	Newroz SC	2-1 HT 1-0	Diyala FC
20/02/25 Iraq Stars League	Diyala FC	1-4 HT 0-3	Newroz SC
03/01/25 Iraq League	Newroz SC	2-1 HT 0-0	Diyala FC

Standings · Iraq Stars League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	10	7	3	0	17	7	24
2	Al Naft SC	10	6	3	1	13	5	21
3	Al Zawra'a	10	5	3	2	15	7	18
4	Erbil SC	10	5	3	2	13	5	18
4	Newroz SC	10	5	3	2	13	5	18
6	Al Shorta SC	10	4	5	1	10	5	17
7	Al Jolan SC	10	3	5	2	10	9	14
8	Al Talaba	10	3	5	2	11	11	14
9	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	10	2	6	2	14	12	12
10	Duhok	10	2	6	2	14	13	12
11	Diyala FC	10	3	3	4	15	16	12
12	Al Minaa	10	3	3	4	10	12	12
13	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	2	5	3	5	7	11
14	Mosul FC	10	3	2	5	10	15	11
15	Zakho	10	2	3	5	7	14	9
16	Al Gharraf	10	2	3	5	6	13	9
17	Al Karkh	10	2	2	6	13	18	8
18	Al Kahrabaa	10	1	5	4	6	11	8
19	Naft Maysan	10	1	5	4	7	14	8
20	Karbalaa FC	10	1	3	6	7	17	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Newroz SC	Diyala FC
Zakho	1-0 W	2-2 D
Al Jolan SC	2-0 W	3-3 D
Mosul FC	3-0 W	1-2 L
Naft Maysan	2-0 W	2-0 W
Al Talaba	0-1 L	2-1 W
Al Gharraf	0-1 L	3-1 W
Al Naft SC	1-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Newroz SC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Newroz SC

LLLDWWWDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-0	6	1	W
09/10	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	1	0	W
19/09	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
14/09	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	7	7	W
09/09	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
04/09	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
30/08	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
26/08	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	2	9	L
22/08	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
01/06	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	6	5	L

Diyala FC

WLDDLLWDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	3	8	W
09/10	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
19/09	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
12/09	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	1-1	3-1	1	1	W
08/09	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	2	7	L
03/09	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	1-3	3-3	6	7	D
25/08	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-2	1	2	D
21/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-2	8	7	L
15/08	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Newroz SC vs Diyala FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Newroz SC win (55%). Probabilities: Newroz SC 55%, draw 27%, Diyala FC 18%.

How many goals are expected in Newroz SC vs Diyala FC?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Newroz SC 1.6 · Diyala FC 0.8), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Newroz SC vs Diyala FC?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.