Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Queens University vs Newry City

Team pages: Queens University · Newry City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Queens University1.57

Newry City1.48

1X2

39% 26% 35%

Queens University Draw Newry City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Queens University 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWLLWL

Newry City 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWDDDWLW

Head-to-head

Queens University 0–1–5 Newry City (6 last)

Newry City0-0Queens University
Queens University0-1Newry City
Queens University0-2Newry City
Queens University0-1Newry City
Newry City1-0Queens University
Queens University1-3Newry City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Queens University 1520 · Newry City 1506

	Queens University	Draw	Newry City
Our model	39%	26%	35%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Newry City: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Queens University	Newry City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.7	1.8 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/57/14%	57/14/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.1	2.9 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.50

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 3.02 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:04 +20’	2.30	3.50	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:12 +6’	2.07	3.21	3.02

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Queens University 0–1–5 Newry City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/03/22 Northern Ireland Championship	Newry City	0-0 HT 0-0	Queens University
18/12/21 Northern Ireland Championship	Queens University	0-1	Newry City
04/09/21 Northern Ireland Championship	Queens University	0-2 HT 0-1	Newry City
18/01/20 Northern Ireland Championship	Queens University	0-1	Newry City
30/11/19 Northern Ireland Championship	Newry City	1-0	Queens University
21/09/19 Northern Ireland Championship	Queens University	1-3	Newry City

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Glenavon	12	7	3	2	30	14	24
2	Newington FC	12	7	2	3	27	22	23
3	Annagh United	11	6	4	1	25	14	22
4	Institute	12	6	2	4	22	17	20
5	Queens University	11	6	1	4	20	8	19
6	Newry City	11	5	3	3	19	19	18
7	Warrenpoint Town	11	5	2	4	19	15	17
8	Ballinamallard Utd	11	5	2	4	17	16	17
9	HW Welders	12	5	1	6	18	20	16
10	Ards FC	12	4	3	5	14	15	15
11	Loughgall	12	3	5	4	16	22	14
12	Moyola Park	12	4	2	6	14	24	14
13	Dundela	11	2	5	4	19	23	11
14	Strabane Athletic	12	2	4	6	11	21	10
15	Rathfriland Rangers	11	3	0	8	11	23	9
16	Armagh City	11	0	5	6	9	18	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Queens University	Newry City
Dundela	2-0 W	3-1 W
Rathfriland Rangers	0-1 L	2-1 W
Loughgall	1-0 W	1-2 L
Strabane Athletic	6-0 W	2-2 D
Institute	4-1 W	3-1 W
HW Welders	2-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Queens University (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Queens University

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
03/10	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
26/09	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
19/09	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W
05/09	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	–	6-0	–	–	W
28/08	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	2-0	3-0	1	7	W
22/08	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	4-1	5	4	W
15/08	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
11/08	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	2-1	2-1	3	1	W

Newry City

LWLWDDDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	3-1	3-1	5	3	W
03/10	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-2	–	–	L
25/09	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	3-2	3	5	W
18/09	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-1	14	4	D
11/09	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	2-2	2-2	4	4	D
04/09	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	2-2	7	7	D
29/08	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
21/08	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
15/08	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-1	–	–	W
11/08	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Queens University vs Newry City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Queens University win (39%). Probabilities: Queens University 39%, draw 26%, Newry City 35%.

How many goals are expected in Queens University vs Newry City?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Queens University 1.57 · Newry City 1.48), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Queens University vs Newry City?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.