Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 23/10, 20:45

Prediction: Strabane Athletic vs Ballinamallard Utd

Team pages: Strabane Athletic · Ballinamallard Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Strabane Athletic1.31

Ballinamallard Utd1.54

1X2

31% 27% 42%

Strabane Athletic Draw Ballinamallard Utd

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Strabane Athletic 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLDDWDLD

Ballinamallard Utd 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWDWLDWD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Strabane Athletic 1436 · Ballinamallard Utd 1517

	Strabane Athletic	Draw	Ballinamallard Utd
Our model	31%	27%	42%
Market	31%	27%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ballinamallard Utd (rating 1436 vs 1517).
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Strabane Athletic	Ballinamallard Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.9	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/67/33%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4	2.8 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.30

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:51 +16’	2.88	3.30	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Annagh United	12	7	4	1	28	15	25
2	Glenavon	12	7	3	2	30	14	24
3	Newington FC	12	7	2	3	27	22	23
4	Queens University	12	6	2	4	21	9	20
5	Institute	12	6	2	4	22	17	20
6	Newry City	12	5	4	3	20	20	19
7	Warrenpoint Town	12	5	3	4	21	17	18
8	Ballinamallard Utd	12	5	3	4	19	18	18
9	HW Welders	12	5	1	6	18	20	16
10	Ards FC	12	4	3	5	14	15	15
11	Loughgall	12	3	5	4	16	22	14
12	Moyola Park	12	4	2	6	14	24	14
13	Rathfriland Rangers	12	4	0	8	12	23	12
14	Dundela	12	2	5	5	19	24	11
15	Strabane Athletic	12	2	4	6	11	21	10
16	Armagh City	12	0	5	7	10	21	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Strabane Athletic	Ballinamallard Utd
Loughgall	1-1 D	6-1 W
Warrenpoint Town	0-1 L	2-2 D
Ards FC	1-0 W	1-1 D
Dundela	1-1 D	2-1 W
Queens University	0-6 L	1-0 W
Newington FC	1-2 L	0-4 L
HW Welders	1-2 L	3-1 W
Glenavon	1-4 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Ballinamallard Utd (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Strabane Athletic

LLLLDDWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-1	–	–	D
10/10	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-1	–	–	L
02/10	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
26/09	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
18/09	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
11/09	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	2-2	2-2	7	4	D
05/09	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-6	–	–	L
28/08	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
22/08	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-2	2	7	L
15/08	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-4	–	–	L

Ballinamallard Utd

LWLWDWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	2-2	8	5	D
10/10	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
03/10	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
26/09	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-3	0-4	3	2	L
19/09	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-1	–	–	W
12/09	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	6-1	5	3	W
29/08	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Strabane Athletic vs Ballinamallard Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ballinamallard Utd win (42%). Probabilities: Strabane Athletic 31%, draw 27%, Ballinamallard Utd 42%.

How many goals are expected in Strabane Athletic vs Ballinamallard Utd?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Strabane Athletic 1.31 · Ballinamallard Utd 1.54), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Strabane Athletic vs Ballinamallard Utd?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.