Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 23/10, 20:45

Prediction: Newry City vs Newington FC

Team pages: Newry City · Newington FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.65Total

Newry City1.82

Newington FC1.84

1X2

37% 24% 38%

Newry City Draw Newington FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Newry City 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDDDWLWD

Newington FC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWDLWLLW

Head-to-head

Newry City 2–1–3 Newington FC (6 last)

Newington FC3-2Newry City
Newry City0-1Newington FC
Newry City3-1Newington FC
Newington FC3-3Newry City
Newry City1-2Newington FC
Newry City1-0Newington FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Newry City 1504 · Newington FC 1506

	Newry City	Draw	Newington FC
Our model	38%	23%	39%
Market	37%	25%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.65 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Newington FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Newry City	Newington FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.6	2.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	1.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/25/25%	50/17/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.8	3.3 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	3.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.60

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
11:55 +14’	2.40	3.60	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Newry City 2–1–3 Newington FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Newington FC	3-2 HT 2-1	Newry City
07/02/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Newry City	0-1	Newington FC
19/10/24 Northern Ireland Championship	Newry City	3-1 HT 0-1	Newington FC
31/08/24 Northern Ireland Championship	Newington FC	3-3	Newry City
03/02/24 Northern Ireland Cup	Newry City	1-2 HT 1-2	Newington FC
08/07/23 Club Friendly List	Newry City	1-0 HT 1-0	Newington FC

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Annagh United	12	7	4	1	28	15	25
2	Glenavon	12	7	3	2	30	14	24
3	Newington FC	12	7	2	3	27	22	23
4	Queens University	12	6	2	4	21	9	20
5	Institute	12	6	2	4	22	17	20
6	Newry City	12	5	4	3	20	20	19
7	Warrenpoint Town	12	5	3	4	21	17	18
8	Ballinamallard Utd	12	5	3	4	19	18	18
9	HW Welders	12	5	1	6	18	20	16
10	Ards FC	12	4	3	5	14	15	15
11	Loughgall	12	3	5	4	16	22	14
12	Moyola Park	12	4	2	6	14	24	14
13	Rathfriland Rangers	12	4	0	8	12	23	12
14	Dundela	12	2	5	5	19	24	11
15	Strabane Athletic	12	2	4	6	11	21	10
16	Armagh City	12	0	5	7	10	21	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Newry City	Newington FC
Queens University	1-1 D	2-1 W
Dundela	3-1 W	5-5 D
Strabane Athletic	2-2 D	2-1 W
Institute	3-1 W	0-7 L
Warrenpoint Town	0-3 L	1-0 W
Rathfriland Rangers	2-1 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Newington FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Newry City

WLWDDDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
09/10	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	3-1	3-1	5	3	W
03/10	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-2	–	–	L
25/09	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	3-2	3	5	W
18/09	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-1	14	4	D
11/09	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	2-2	2-2	4	4	D
04/09	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	2-2	7	7	D
29/08	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
21/08	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
15/08	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-1	–	–	W

Newington FC

WWWWDLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	0-2	3-2	7	8	W
09/10	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-2	0-2	9	2	L
03/10	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-7	–	–	L
26/09	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	3-0	4-0	7	2	W
19/09	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	–	5-5	–	–	D
05/09	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W
28/08	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
22/08	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	3-0	4-0	4	4	W
15/08	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	2-0	2-1	10	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Newry City vs Newington FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Newington FC win (38%). Probabilities: Newry City 37%, draw 24%, Newington FC 38%.

How many goals are expected in Newry City vs Newington FC?

The model expects 3.65 goals (Newry City 1.82 · Newington FC 1.84), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Newry City vs Newington FC?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.