Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Ballinamallard Utd vs Warrenpoint Town

Team pages: Ballinamallard Utd · Warrenpoint Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Ballinamallard Utd1.42

Warrenpoint Town1.31

1X2

39% 28% 34%

Ballinamallard Utd Draw Warrenpoint Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Ballinamallard Utd 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLWDWLDW

Warrenpoint Town 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDLWLWDW

Head-to-head

Ballinamallard Utd 0–1–5 Warrenpoint Town (6 last)

Ballinamallard Utd0-1Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town1-0Ballinamallard Utd
Ballinamallard Utd0-4Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town4-1Ballinamallard Utd
Warrenpoint Town2-1Ballinamallard Utd
Ballinamallard Utd1-1Warrenpoint Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ballinamallard Utd 1508 · Warrenpoint Town 1553

	Ballinamallard Utd	Draw	Warrenpoint Town
Our model	38%	28%	34%
Market	39%	27%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Warrenpoint Town (rating 1508 vs 1553).
H2H favours Warrenpoint Town: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ballinamallard Utd	Warrenpoint Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	1.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	33/67/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.2	1.7 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.4	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.30

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.96 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:08 +15’	2.30	3.30	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:14 +4’	2.13	3.15	2.96

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ballinamallard Utd 0–1–5 Warrenpoint Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Ballinamallard Utd	0-1	Warrenpoint Town
24/02/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Warrenpoint Town	1-0	Ballinamallard Utd
13/12/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Ballinamallard Utd	0-4	Warrenpoint Town
04/10/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Warrenpoint Town	4-1	Ballinamallard Utd
25/02/23 Northern Ireland Championship	Warrenpoint Town	2-1 HT 0-1	Ballinamallard Utd
04/02/23 Northern Ireland Championship	Ballinamallard Utd	1-1	Warrenpoint Town

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Glenavon	12	7	3	2	30	14	24
2	Newington FC	12	7	2	3	27	22	23
3	Annagh United	11	6	4	1	25	14	22
4	Institute	12	6	2	4	22	17	20
5	Queens University	11	6	1	4	20	8	19
6	Newry City	11	5	3	3	19	19	18
7	Warrenpoint Town	11	5	2	4	19	15	17
8	Ballinamallard Utd	11	5	2	4	17	16	17
9	HW Welders	12	5	1	6	18	20	16
10	Ards FC	12	4	3	5	14	15	15
11	Loughgall	12	3	5	4	16	22	14
12	Moyola Park	12	4	2	6	14	24	14
13	Dundela	11	2	5	4	19	23	11
14	Strabane Athletic	12	2	4	6	11	21	10
15	Rathfriland Rangers	11	3	0	8	11	23	9
16	Armagh City	11	0	5	6	9	18	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ballinamallard Utd	Warrenpoint Town
Ards FC	1-1 D	1-3 L
Newington FC	0-4 L	0-1 L
Loughgall	6-1 W	3-3 D
Annagh United	1-3 L	1-1 D
Moyola Park	0-2 L	6-2 W
Institute	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ballinamallard Utd

WLWLWDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
03/10	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
26/09	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-3	0-4	3	2	L
19/09	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-1	–	–	W
12/09	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	6-1	5	3	W
29/08	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-2	–	–	L
11/08	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-1	4	6	W

Warrenpoint Town

WLWDLWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
25/09	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-0	–	–	W
19/09	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-2	–	–	L
12/09	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	–	6-2	–	–	W
05/09	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-1	–	–	L
28/08	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	3-3	5	2	D
21/08	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	3-0	1	5	W
15/08	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-3	–	–	L
11/08	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ballinamallard Utd vs Warrenpoint Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ballinamallard Utd win (39%). Probabilities: Ballinamallard Utd 39%, draw 28%, Warrenpoint Town 34%.

How many goals are expected in Ballinamallard Utd vs Warrenpoint Town?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Ballinamallard Utd 1.42 · Warrenpoint Town 1.31), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ballinamallard Utd vs Warrenpoint Town?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.