Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: HW Welders vs Loughgall

Team pages: HW Welders · Loughgall

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

HW Welders1.75

Loughgall1.23

1X2

49% 25% 26%

HW Welders Draw Loughgall

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

HW Welders 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLLLDL

Loughgall 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DWDLLDLWLD

Head-to-head

HW Welders 3–2–1 Loughgall (6 last)

Loughgall2-0HW Welders
HW Welders2-1Loughgall
HW Welders1-1Loughgall
Loughgall1-2HW Welders
HW Welders4-3Loughgall
HW Welders0-0Loughgall

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HW Welders 1491 · Loughgall 1495

	HW Welders	Draw	Loughgall
Our model	48%	26%	26%
Market	49%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours HW Welders: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HW Welders	Loughgall
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	1.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/29/43%	14/57/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.4	1.6 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0	3.6 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.60

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.83▲	Pinn 1.88
X	3.80 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.95 ★
2	3.75 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:31 +9’	1.70	3.80	3.75
10:50 +47’	1.83▲	3.60▼	3.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:14 +35’	1.88	3.95	2.92

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HW Welders 3–2–1 Loughgall

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Loughgall	2-0	HW Welders
24/01/26 Northern Ireland Championship	HW Welders	2-1 HT 2-0	Loughgall
08/11/25 Northern Ireland Championship	HW Welders	1-1	Loughgall
13/09/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Loughgall	1-2	HW Welders
27/07/24 Club Friendly List	HW Welders	4-3 HT 3-0	Loughgall
25/03/23 Northern Ireland Championship	HW Welders	0-0	Loughgall

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Newington FC	13	8	2	3	29	22	26
2	Annagh United	12	7	4	1	28	15	25
3	Glenavon	12	7	3	2	30	14	24
4	Ballinamallard Utd	13	6	3	4	20	18	21
5	Queens University	12	6	2	4	21	9	20
6	Institute	12	6	2	4	22	17	20
7	Newry City	13	5	4	4	20	22	19
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	5	3	4	21	17	18
9	HW Welders	12	5	1	6	18	20	16
10	Ards FC	12	4	3	5	14	15	15
11	Loughgall	12	3	5	4	16	22	14
12	Moyola Park	12	4	2	6	14	24	14
13	Rathfriland Rangers	12	4	0	8	12	23	12
14	Dundela	12	2	5	5	19	24	11
15	Strabane Athletic	13	2	4	7	11	22	10
16	Armagh City	12	0	5	7	10	21	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HW Welders	Loughgall
Glenavon	0-4 L	1-4 L
Institute	0-0 D	0-0 D
Newry City	2-3 L	2-1 W
Ballinamallard Utd	1-3 L	1-6 L
Moyola Park	4-1 W	1-2 L
Strabane Athletic	2-1 W	1-1 D
Armagh City	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: HW Welders (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HW Welders

WWWWLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	0-3	0-4	2	5	L
10/10	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
03/10	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	1-2	1-3	11	6	L
25/09	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	2-3	4	5	L
19/09	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-3	–	–	L
12/09	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-3	8	7	L
05/09	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	–	4-1	–	–	W
28/08	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-0	13	7	W
22/08	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
15/08	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W

Loughgall

DWDLLDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-1	–	–	D
10/10	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	1-2	1-2	3	5	L
03/10	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-1	–	–	W
25/09	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-4	3	8	L
19/09	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
12/09	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-1	–	–	L
05/09	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-6	7	3	L
28/08	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	3-3	3	2	D
22/08	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
15/08	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HW Welders vs Loughgall?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HW Welders win (49%). Probabilities: HW Welders 49%, draw 25%, Loughgall 26%.

How many goals are expected in HW Welders vs Loughgall?

The model expects 2.98 goals (HW Welders 1.75 · Loughgall 1.23), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in HW Welders vs Loughgall?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.