Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Dundela vs Rathfriland Rangers

Team pages: Dundela · Rathfriland Rangers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

Dundela1.88

Rathfriland Rangers1.31

1X2

50% 25% 26%

Dundela Draw Rathfriland Rangers

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Dundela 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDLLWDDWLL

Rathfriland Rangers 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWLWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dundela 1477 · Rathfriland Rangers 1457

	Dundela	Draw	Rathfriland Rangers
Our model	50%	25%	26%
Market	50%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dundela	Rathfriland Rangers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.1	1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.7 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/50/13%	33/0/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.3	1.2 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	5.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.63
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.95 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:29 +54’	1.80	3.60	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:12 +6’	1.67	3.63	3.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Glenavon	12	7	3	2	30	14	24
2	Newington FC	12	7	2	3	27	22	23
3	Annagh United	11	6	4	1	25	14	22
4	Institute	12	6	2	4	22	17	20
5	Queens University	11	6	1	4	20	8	19
6	Newry City	11	5	3	3	19	19	18
7	Warrenpoint Town	11	5	2	4	19	15	17
8	Ballinamallard Utd	11	5	2	4	17	16	17
9	HW Welders	12	5	1	6	18	20	16
10	Ards FC	12	4	3	5	14	15	15
11	Loughgall	12	3	5	4	16	22	14
12	Moyola Park	12	4	2	6	14	24	14
13	Dundela	11	2	5	4	19	23	11
14	Strabane Athletic	12	2	4	6	11	21	10
15	Rathfriland Rangers	11	3	0	8	11	23	9
16	Armagh City	11	0	5	6	9	18	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dundela	Rathfriland Rangers
Newry City	1-3 L	1-2 L
Queens University	0-2 L	1-0 W
Armagh City	2-0 W	2-1 W
Newington FC	5-5 D	0-4 L
Glenavon	3-2 W	1-3 L
HW Welders	0-2 L	3-1 W
Annagh United	2-2 D	2-4 L
Ards FC	2-2 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Dundela (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dundela

DDLLWDDWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	1-3	1-3	5	3	L
03/10	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
26/09	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
18/09	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-1	8	4	D
12/09	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	5-5	–	–	D
05/09	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	2-1	3-2	2	3	W
28/08	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
22/08	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	2-1	2-2	5	6	D
11/08	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-2	5	4	D

Rathfriland Rangers

LLLLLLWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	2-0	2-1	4	8	W
03/10	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	2-1	3-1	3	6	W
25/09	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-2	–	–	L
19/09	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
05/09	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
28/08	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	0-2	1-3	3	5	L
22/08	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-3	0-4	2	4	L
15/08	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/08	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dundela vs Rathfriland Rangers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dundela win (50%). Probabilities: Dundela 50%, draw 25%, Rathfriland Rangers 26%.

How many goals are expected in Dundela vs Rathfriland Rangers?

The model expects 3.19 goals (Dundela 1.88 · Rathfriland Rangers 1.31), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Dundela vs Rathfriland Rangers?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.