Football · England Northern Premier League · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: FC United of Manchester vs Quorn

Team pages: FC United of Manchester · Quorn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.93Total

FC United of Manchester2.11

Quorn1.82

1X2

44% 23% 33%

FC United of Manchester Draw Quorn

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FC United of Manchester 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLLWLDD

Quorn 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDDLWLWDWD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC United of Manchester 1472 · Quorn 1507

	FC United of Manchester	Draw	Quorn
Our model	44%	22%	33%
Market	43%	24%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.93 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC United of Manchester	Quorn
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.9	2.1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	33/50/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4	2.5 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.70

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:19 +6’	2.05	3.70	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	15	10	4	1	33	13	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	14	9	3	2	31	9	30
3	Guiseley	13	9	1	3	27	12	28
4	Gainsborough	14	9	1	4	31	17	28
5	Avro FC	14	9	1	4	37	27	28
6	Workington	15	7	3	5	26	25	24
7	Warrington Rylands	14	7	2	5	25	21	23
7	Warrington Town	14	6	5	3	25	21	23
9	Curzon Ashton	13	7	1	5	24	17	22
10	Alfreton Town	15	6	2	7	21	17	20
11	Lancaster City	16	6	2	8	20	29	20
12	Bury	11	6	1	4	22	11	19
13	Whitby	14	6	1	7	20	33	19
14	Emley AFC	15	4	5	6	16	26	17
15	Hyde Utd	15	4	3	8	15	29	15
16	Leek Town	13	3	5	5	26	26	14
17	Ashton Utd	14	3	5	6	17	18	14
18	Quorn	13	3	5	5	23	29	14
19	Stockton Town	15	3	3	9	18	28	12
20	Bamber Bridge	14	2	4	8	17	34	10
21	Ilkeston	15	3	1	11	10	34	10
22	FC United of Manchester	12	1	4	7	15	23	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC United of Manchester	Quorn
Bamber Bridge	1-1 D	4-2 W
Workington	1-2 L	3-0 W
Hyde Utd	0-1 L	2-2 D
Gainsborough	0-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Quorn (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC United of Manchester

LLLDLLWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	6	0	D
10/10	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
12/09	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	4-1	5	5	W
31/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	1-1	3-4	4	2	L
29/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	2-3	–	–	L
25/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
22/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
18/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
15/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L

Quorn

LDDLWLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	0	8	D
10/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-0	7	6	W
06/10	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-2	7	6	D
03/10	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-2	7	1	W
12/09	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	1-4	–	–	L
31/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
29/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	3-6	–	–	L
25/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	4	0	D
22/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
18/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC United of Manchester vs Quorn?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC United of Manchester win (44%). Probabilities: FC United of Manchester 44%, draw 23%, Quorn 33%.

How many goals are expected in FC United of Manchester vs Quorn?

The model expects 3.93 goals (FC United of Manchester 2.11 · Quorn 1.82), with a 60% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC United of Manchester vs Quorn?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.