Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 28/10, 19:00

Prediction: NK Korotan Prevalje vs NK Sampion Celje

Team pages: NK Korotan Prevalje

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

NK Korotan Prevalje2.05

NK Sampion Celje0.97

1X2

62% 22% 17%

NK Korotan Prevalje Draw NK Sampion Celje

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Korotan Prevalje 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WDDDLDWDLL

NK Sampion Celje 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LDLWLLLLLL

Head-to-head

NK Korotan Prevalje 3–1 NK Sampion Celje (4 last)

NK Sampion Celje1-4NK Korotan Prevalje
NK Sampion Celje1-3NK Korotan Prevalje
NK Sampion Celje3-1NK Korotan Prevalje
NK Korotan Prevalje2-1NK Sampion Celje

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Korotan Prevalje 1479 · NK Sampion Celje 1403

	NK Korotan Prevalje	Draw	NK Sampion Celje
Our model	61%	23%	16%
Market	62%	21%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Korotan Prevalje (rating 1479 vs 1403).
H2H favours NK Korotan Prevalje: 3-0-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Korotan Prevalje	NK Sampion Celje
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	1.1 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	0/17/83%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.4	3.3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.33

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:05 +6’	1.44	4.33	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Korotan Prevalje 3–0–1 NK Sampion Celje

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/09/24 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Sampion Celje	1-4 HT 0-2	NK Korotan Prevalje
28/10/23 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Sampion Celje	1-3 HT 0-1	NK Korotan Prevalje
28/08/21 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Sampion Celje	3-1 HT 1-0	NK Korotan Prevalje
29/05/21 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Korotan Prevalje	2-1 HT 2-1	NK Sampion Celje

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Odranci	10	8	2	0	30	12	26
2	NK Fuzinar	10	6	1	3	32	22	19
3	NK Ormoz	10	6	1	3	23	17	19
4	NK Smartno	10	6	1	3	27	22	19
5	NK Hajdina	10	4	4	2	18	15	16
6	NK Carda	10	4	3	3	23	18	15
7	SD Videm	10	4	2	4	17	19	14
8	NK Podvinci	10	4	2	4	15	19	14
9	NK Race	10	3	4	3	11	10	13
10	NK Korotan Prevalje	10	2	5	3	14	15	11
11	NK Dobrovce	10	3	0	7	15	27	9
12	NK Ljutomer	10	2	2	6	12	16	8
13	NK Limbus Pekre	10	2	2	6	10	23	8
14	NK Sampion Celje	10	1	1	8	11	23	4
15	DNS Zavrc	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Korotan Prevalje	NK Sampion Celje
NK Odranci	1-3 L	1-5 L
NK Dobrovce	0-1 L	0-2 L
NK Fuzinar	4-4 D	3-4 L
NK Limbus Pekre	3-1 W	4-0 W
NK Ljutomer	1-1 D	0-3 L
NK Podvinci	0-2 L	1-1 D
SD Videm	4-2 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: NK Korotan Prevalje (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Korotan Prevalje

WDDDLDWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	NK Odranci Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-3	–	–	L
10/10	NK Dobrovce Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
03/10	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	4-4	–	–	D
26/09	NK Limbus Pekre Slovenia 3. SNL	2-1	3-1	3	7	W
19/09	NK Ljutomer Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
12/09	NK Podvinci Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-2	–	–	L
04/09	Carda Martjanci Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
26/08	NK Race Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
22/08	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
15/08	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	–	4-2	–	–	W

NK Sampion Celje

LDLWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-2	–	–	L
10/10	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	0-2	4	9	L
04/10	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
27/09	NK Odranci Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-5	–	–	L
19/09	NK Dobrovce Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
12/09	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-4	–	–	L
05/09	NK Limbus Pekre Slovenia 3. SNL	–	4-0	–	–	W
29/08	NK Ljutomer Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	0-3	3	4	L
22/08	NK Podvinci Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	1-1	14	3	D
16/08	NK Carda Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	2-3	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Korotan Prevalje vs NK Sampion Celje?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Korotan Prevalje win (62%). Probabilities: NK Korotan Prevalje 62%, draw 22%, NK Sampion Celje 17%.

How many goals are expected in NK Korotan Prevalje vs NK Sampion Celje?

The model expects 3.03 goals (NK Korotan Prevalje 2.05 · NK Sampion Celje 0.97), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Korotan Prevalje vs NK Sampion Celje?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.