Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 07/11, 18:00

Prediction: NK Dobrovce vs NK Podvinci

Team pages: NK Dobrovce · NK Podvinci

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.56Total

NK Dobrovce1.56

NK Podvinci1.99

1X2

30% 23% 47%

NK Dobrovce Draw NK Podvinci

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Dobrovce 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLWLDL

NK Podvinci 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWDLWW

Head-to-head

NK Dobrovce 3–2–1 NK Podvinci (6 last)

NK Podvinci1-1NK Dobrovce
NK Dobrovce3-2NK Podvinci
NK Dobrovce2-1NK Podvinci
NK Podvinci2-0NK Dobrovce
NK Dobrovce1-1NK Podvinci
NK Podvinci1-2NK Dobrovce

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Dobrovce 1473 · NK Podvinci 1525

	NK Dobrovce	Draw	NK Podvinci
Our model	30%	23%	47%
Market	30%	23%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Podvinci (rating 1473 vs 1525).
H2H favours NK Dobrovce: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Dobrovce	NK Podvinci
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.5	1.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/25/38%	38/63/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 2.5	1.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X4.00

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 11:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00
X	3.90 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00
2	2.00 → 1.90▼	Pinn 2.06 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
12:25 +10’	2.80	3.90	2.00
21:21 +7’	3.70▲	4.20▲	1.67▼
08:22 +5’	3.25▼	4.10▼	1.80▲
11:56 +3’	3.00▼	4.00▼	1.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:16 +11’	2.84	3.47	2.09
07:58 +29’	2.89▲	3.47	2.06▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Dobrovce 3–2–1 NK Podvinci

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Podvinci	1-1 HT 0-1	NK Dobrovce
13/09/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Dobrovce	3-2	NK Podvinci
15/03/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Dobrovce	2-1 HT 1-1	NK Podvinci
01/09/24 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Podvinci	2-0 HT 0-0	NK Dobrovce
13/04/24 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Dobrovce	1-1 HT 0-1	NK Podvinci
30/05/21 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Podvinci	1-2 HT 0-1	NK Dobrovce

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Odranci	12	9	2	1	36	13	29
2	NK Ormoz	12	8	1	3	28	18	25
3	NK Fuzinar	12	7	1	4	36	25	22
4	NK Podvinci	12	6	2	4	21	21	20
5	NK Smartno	11	6	1	4	27	28	19
6	NK Carda	12	5	3	4	26	22	18
7	NK Korotan Prevalje	12	4	5	3	20	16	17
8	SD Videm	12	5	2	5	21	22	17
9	NK Race	12	4	5	3	13	11	17
10	NK Hajdina	12	4	4	4	19	20	16
11	NK Dobrovce	12	3	1	8	17	31	10
12	NK Ljutomer	12	2	3	7	14	21	9
13	NK Limbus Pekre	12	2	3	7	13	28	9
14	NK Sampion Celje	11	1	1	9	11	26	4
15	DNS Zavrc	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Dobrovce	NK Podvinci
NK Carda	1-3 L	2-2 D
NK Race	1-1 D	0-1 L
NK Smartno	3-4 L	1-8 L
NK Korotan Prevalje	1-0 W	2-0 W
NK Ormoz	3-4 L	2-0 W
NK Hajdina	0-3 L	4-1 W
SD Videm	3-2 W	0-2 L
NK Fuzinar	1-5 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: NK Podvinci (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Dobrovce

LWLWLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	NK Carda Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-3	–	–	L
28/10	NK Race Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	1-1	1	5	D
17/10	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	1-2	3-4	3	5	L
10/10	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
03/10	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	3-4	2	3	L
30/09	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	0-3	2	3	L
19/09	NK Sampion Celje Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
12/09	NK Odranci Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-3	2	7	L
06/09	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	3-2	5	4	W
29/08	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-5	–	–	L

NK Podvinci

WWWLLWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	3-1	5	6	W
28/10	NK Limbus Pekre Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	3-1	6	1	W
10/10	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-2	5	7	L
04/10	NK Carda Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
29/09	NK Ljutomer Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	2-1	12	6	W
26/09	NK Race Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
19/09	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	1-8	6	4	L
12/09	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-0	–	–	W
05/09	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-0	–	–	W
30/08	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	4-1	0	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Dobrovce vs NK Podvinci?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Podvinci win (47%). Probabilities: NK Dobrovce 30%, draw 23%, NK Podvinci 47%.

How many goals are expected in NK Dobrovce vs NK Podvinci?

The model expects 3.56 goals (NK Dobrovce 1.56 · NK Podvinci 1.99), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Dobrovce vs NK Podvinci?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.