Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 07/11, 14:00

Prediction: Svoboda Ljubljana vs NK IB 1975 Ljubljana

Team pages: Svoboda Ljubljana · NK IB 1975 Ljubljana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Svoboda Ljubljana1.4

NK IB 1975 Ljubljana1.43

1X2

36% 25% 38%

Svoboda Ljubljana Draw NK IB 1975 Ljubljana

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Svoboda Ljubljana 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWLDL

NK IB 1975 Ljubljana 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLDWLDWD

Head-to-head

Svoboda Ljubljana 0–2 NK IB 1975 Ljubljana (2 last)

NK IB 1975 Ljubljana3-0Svoboda Ljubljana
Svoboda Ljubljana1-2NK IB 1975 Ljubljana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Svoboda Ljubljana 1433 · NK IB 1975 Ljubljana 1501

	Svoboda Ljubljana	Draw	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana
Our model	35%	27%	37%
Market	37%	24%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK IB 1975 Ljubljana (rating 1433 vs 1501).
H2H favours NK IB 1975 Ljubljana: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Svoboda Ljubljana	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 2.5	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1.3	1.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/33/67%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.3	0.8 / 2.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.75

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:16 +9’	2.40	3.75	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Svoboda Ljubljana 0–0–2 NK IB 1975 Ljubljana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	3-0 HT 1-0	Svoboda Ljubljana
02/11/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	Svoboda Ljubljana	1-2	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MNK Izola	12	11	1	0	54	9	34
2	Roltek DOB	12	8	3	1	31	9	27
3	ND Idrija	12	8	1	3	20	14	25
4	NK Tolmin	12	6	3	3	24	15	21
5	NK Litija	12	6	3	3	26	11	21
6	NK Sencur	12	5	4	3	22	21	19
7	NK Rudar Trbovlje	12	5	1	6	17	32	16
8	NK Skofja Loka	12	4	3	5	18	24	15
9	NK Adria Miren	12	4	1	7	25	26	13
10	NK Ziri	12	3	4	5	14	15	13
11	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	12	3	3	6	12	20	12
12	NK Fama Vipava	12	2	1	9	16	51	7
13	NK Sobec Lesce	12	1	4	7	7	19	7
14	Svoboda Ljubljana	12	1	2	9	7	27	5

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Svoboda Ljubljana	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana
NK Rudar Trbovlje	0-2 L	2-1 W
MNK Izola	1-1 D	1-4 L
NK Ziri	0-3 L	0-0 D
NK Skofja Loka	1-0 W	2-3 L
NK Tolmin	0-2 L	0-1 L
Roltek DOB	0-4 L	0-0 D
NK Fama Vipava	3-5 L	1-1 D
NK Adria Miren	1-4 L	2-1 W
NK Litija	0-3 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 7 L	2 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: NK IB 1975 Ljubljana (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Svoboda Ljubljana

LLLLLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-2	–	–	L
28/10	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-1	2	5	D
17/10	NK Ziri Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-3	–	–	L
10/10	NK Skofja Loka Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	NK Tolmin Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-2	–	–	L
26/09	NK Sencur Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
19/09	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	0-3	0-4	8	4	L
12/09	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-5	–	–	L
05/09	NK Adria Miren Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-4	–	–	L
30/08	NK Litija Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	0-3	2	2	L

NK IB 1975 Ljubljana

LWLLDWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
28/10	NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-1	–	–	W
17/10	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-1	–	–	D
10/10	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	1-4	1	3	L
03/10	NK Adria Miren Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
27/09	NK Ziri Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
19/09	NK Litija Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-3	0	1	L
12/09	NK Skofja Loka Slovenia 3. SNL	2-1	2-3	5	2	L
05/09	NK Sobec Lesce Slovenia 3. SNL	–	4-1	–	–	W
29/08	NK Tolmin Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Svoboda Ljubljana vs NK IB 1975 Ljubljana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK IB 1975 Ljubljana win (38%). Probabilities: Svoboda Ljubljana 36%, draw 25%, NK IB 1975 Ljubljana 38%.

How many goals are expected in Svoboda Ljubljana vs NK IB 1975 Ljubljana?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Svoboda Ljubljana 1.4 · NK IB 1975 Ljubljana 1.43), with a 57% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Svoboda Ljubljana vs NK IB 1975 Ljubljana?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.