Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 07/11, 14:00

Prediction: Roltek DOB vs NK Sencur

Team pages: Roltek DOB · NK Sencur

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Roltek DOB2.07

NK Sencur1.13

1X2

58% 22% 20%

Roltek DOB Draw NK Sencur

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Roltek DOB 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWDWWD

NK Sencur 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDDLWWWDLW

Head-to-head

Roltek DOB 4–2 NK Sencur (6 last)

NK Sencur1-0Roltek DOB
Roltek DOB2-1NK Sencur
NK Sencur1-2Roltek DOB
Roltek DOB3-1NK Sencur
Roltek DOB1-2NK Sencur
NK Sencur0-2Roltek DOB

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Roltek DOB 1605 · NK Sencur 1527

	Roltek DOB	Draw	NK Sencur
Our model	58%	23%	19%
Market	59%	21%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Roltek DOB (rating 1605 vs 1527).
H2H favours Roltek DOB: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Roltek DOB	NK Sencur
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 0.8	1.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	83/17/0%	25/25/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.5	2.5 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.20

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:19 +6’	1.53	4.20	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Roltek DOB 4–0–2 NK Sencur

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Sencur	1-0	Roltek DOB
25/10/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	Roltek DOB	2-1	NK Sencur
24/09/23 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Sencur	1-2 HT 0-1	Roltek DOB
02/04/16 Slovenia 2. SNL	Roltek DOB	3-1 HT 0-1	NK Sencur
31/10/15 Slovenia 2. SNL	Roltek DOB	1-2 HT 1-0	NK Sencur
28/08/15 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Sencur	0-2 HT 0-0	Roltek DOB

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MNK Izola	12	11	1	0	54	9	34
2	Roltek DOB	12	8	3	1	31	9	27
3	ND Idrija	12	8	1	3	20	14	25
4	NK Tolmin	12	6	3	3	24	15	21
5	NK Litija	12	6	3	3	26	11	21
6	NK Sencur	12	5	4	3	22	21	19
7	NK Rudar Trbovlje	12	5	1	6	17	32	16
8	NK Skofja Loka	12	4	3	5	18	24	15
9	NK Adria Miren	12	4	1	7	25	26	13
10	NK Ziri	12	3	4	5	14	15	13
11	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	12	3	3	6	12	20	12
12	NK Fama Vipava	12	2	1	9	16	51	7
13	NK Sobec Lesce	12	1	4	7	7	19	7
14	Svoboda Ljubljana	12	1	2	9	7	27	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Roltek DOB	NK Sencur
NK Fama Vipava	5-0 W	4-1 W
NK Adria Miren	4-2 W	1-2 L
NK Sobec Lesce	3-0 W	0-0 D
ND Idrija	3-1 W	4-2 W
Svoboda Ljubljana	4-0 W	1-0 W
NK Rudar Trbovlje	3-1 W	3-0 W
MNK Izola	0-3 L	2-5 L
NK Ziri	3-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Roltek DOB (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Roltek DOB

WLWWWWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
28/10	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	5-0	4	1	W
17/10	NK Adria Miren Slovenia 3. SNL	–	4-2	–	–	W
10/10	NK Litija Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	1-1	3	7	D
03/10	NK Sobec Lesce Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
26/09	ND Idrija Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-1	–	–	W
19/09	Svoboda Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	3-0	4-0	6	4	W
13/09	NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	3-1	6	7	W
05/09	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-3	1	7	L
29/08	NK Ziri Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-0	–	–	W

NK Sencur

DDDLWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	4-1	5	4	W
28/10	NK Adria Miren Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-2	–	–	L
10/10	NK Sobec Lesce Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
03/10	ND Idrija Slovenia 3. SNL	–	4-2	–	–	W
26/09	Svoboda Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
20/09	NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	3-0	6	0	W
12/09	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-5	–	–	L
04/09	NK Ziri Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
29/08	NK Skofja Loka Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
22/08	NK Tolmin Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-3	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Roltek DOB vs NK Sencur?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Roltek DOB win (58%). Probabilities: Roltek DOB 58%, draw 22%, NK Sencur 20%.

How many goals are expected in Roltek DOB vs NK Sencur?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Roltek DOB 2.07 · NK Sencur 1.13), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Roltek DOB vs NK Sencur?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.