Football · El Salvador Apertura · 16/10, 03:00

Prediction: CD Luis Angel Firpo vs CD INCA Aruba

Team pages: CD Luis Angel Firpo · CD INCA Aruba

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

CD Luis Angel Firpo2.12

CD INCA Aruba0.76

1X2

69% 19% 12%

CD Luis Angel Firpo Draw CD INCA Aruba

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Luis Angel Firpo 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWLWWDWWDW

CD INCA Aruba 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWLWDWDL

Head-to-head

CD Luis Angel Firpo 0–1–0 CD INCA Aruba (1 last)

CD INCA Aruba0-0CD Luis Angel Firpo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Luis Angel Firpo 1545 · CD INCA Aruba 1497

	CD Luis Angel Firpo	Draw	CD INCA Aruba
Our model	68%	21%	11%
Market	69%	18%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Luis Angel Firpo (rating 1545 vs 1497).
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Luis Angel Firpo	CD INCA Aruba
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.8	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.8	1.5 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.7	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.28

X5.00

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.98

2 (+1.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 18:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.28▲	Bet365 1.28
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.30
2	8.50 → 7.00▼	Pinn 8.88 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 8.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:35 +9’	1.25	5.00	8.50
13:54 +10’	1.30▲	4.75▼	7.00▼
17:51 +12’	1.28▼	5.00▲	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:25 +52’	1.29	5.07	8.63
16:39 +24’	1.27▼	5.27▲	8.75▲
23:48 +13’	1.27▲	5.24▼	8.70▼
01:00 +2’	1.28▲	5.31▲	8.88▲
01:52 +11’	1.28▲	5.30▼	8.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Luis Angel Firpo 0–1–0 CD INCA Aruba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/08/26 El Salvador Apertura	CD INCA Aruba	0-0 HT 0-0	CD Luis Angel Firpo

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD FAS	14	9	3	2	25	12	30
2	CD Luis Angel Firpo	14	8	4	2	26	11	28
3	AD Isidro Metapan	14	8	2	4	20	15	26
4	CD Aguila	15	6	5	4	25	18	23
5	Internacional Santa Tecla	15	5	8	2	21	14	23
6	Alianza FC	14	4	7	3	22	21	19
7	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	15	5	4	6	19	20	19
8	Municipal Limeno	15	5	2	8	21	22	17
9	CD INCA Aruba	15	4	4	7	13	27	16
10	Atlético Balboa	15	3	4	8	15	23	13
11	Fuerte San Francisco	15	2	6	7	11	24	12
12	CD Cacahuatique	15	2	5	8	15	26	11

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Luis Angel Firpo	CD INCA Aruba
Municipal Limeno	3-2 W	2-1 W
Alianza FC	2-2 D	1-1 D
Fuerte San Francisco	3-0 W	2-1 W
CD Aguila	2-0 W	1-3 L
CD Cacahuatique	0-0 D	1-1 D
Atlético Balboa	3-1 W	1-0 W
Internacional Santa Tecla	3-0 W	1-4 L
CD FAS	1-3 L	1-1 D
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	1-0 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: CD Luis Angel Firpo (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Luis Angel Firpo

DWLWWDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	2-1	3-2	6	4	W
04/10	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
01/10	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
27/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	3	12	W
24/09	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
21/09	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
07/09	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	3-0	3-0	6	5	W
31/08	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-3	1-3	12	5	L
24/08	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	0	1	W
17/08	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	8	7	D

CD INCA Aruba

LDWWLWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-3	1-4	4	7	L
05/10	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
02/10	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	2-1	2-1	2	6	W
27/09	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
19/09	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	0-1	2-1	6	9	W
12/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-3	3	0	L
09/09	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
06/09	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
29/08	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-1	0	4	D
22/08	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-4	4	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Luis Angel Firpo vs CD INCA Aruba?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Luis Angel Firpo win (69%). Probabilities: CD Luis Angel Firpo 69%, draw 19%, CD INCA Aruba 12%.

How many goals are expected in CD Luis Angel Firpo vs CD INCA Aruba?

The model expects 2.87 goals (CD Luis Angel Firpo 2.12 · CD INCA Aruba 0.76), with a 57% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Luis Angel Firpo vs CD INCA Aruba?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.